***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 72.0 68.2 72.9 103.3 56.4 53.1 57.9 67.2 86.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 54.1 81.3 63.3 102.5 58.2 53.5 50.0 71.1 85.7 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 65.8 107.6 70.4 100.4 58.6 51.7 71.4 91.0 113.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 88.1 83.4 78.7 104.4 61.5 55.5 63.0 75.1 91.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 74.6 69.5 75.6 105.3 61.9 55.9 50.5 64.6 72.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 68.9 67.6 86.0 102.5 55.7 54.9 43.7 64.1 81.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 75.2 69.5 63.0 102.0 57.6 52.7 44.5 64.0 79.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 95.0 90.1 84.7 101.4 58.5 53.1 66.0 83.5 107.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 77.5 82.5 77.8 102.3 59.2 54.0 52.8 69.6 86.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 87.9 88.9 88.1 101.9 58.8 53.9 53.3 76.8 100.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 69.6 67.7 70.1 100.9 58.1 53.8 49.5 64.2 77.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 61.0 57.5 68.4 98.3 55.5 51.4 37.9 56.2 67.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 64.6 58.4 69.8 97.2 53.7 51.3 43.1 56.4 74.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 103.2 100.7 84.0 98.2 53.1 50.3 73.4 96.1 116.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 38 62 100 73.9 73.3 73.1 115.0 67.0 60.1 27.4 55.0 72.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 56.2 50.8 69.0 98.5 55.3 52.3 30.9 49.8 64.4 30 Nis 06700G01 52 48 0 100 44.3 75.4 59.3 99.3 56.1 52.2 50.7 62.7 94.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 85.1 84.4 94.3 99.8 56.3 52.3 61.5 79.7 90.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 63.9 89.8 64.1 100.4 57.7 52.2 63.2 78.1 96.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 69.6 69.6 94.6 102.2 56.8 53.1 58.8 62.9 83.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 82.6 84.8 73.8 101.9 60.5 53.3 49.7 78.4 90.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 76.5 73.7 60.5 96.1 55.2 50.7 56.8 71.9 81.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 78 22 100 79.3 79.4 64.5 96.4 54.8 49.5 60.2 73.8 89.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 104.9 101.9 82.2 98.6 54.5 51.4 75.7 97.1 113.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 74.2 94.6 84.7 108.3 61.7 56.3 50.5 63.7 96.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 60.3 64.8 62.3 98.1 56.9 51.9 37.3 53.4 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 87.1 92.0 80.3 105.3 57.7 54.4 52.3 80.1 99.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 79 21 100 62.8 62.1 76.4 107.0 61.6 57.2 40.5 58.8 71.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 105.8 106.6 96.3 100.3 55.3 52.0 69.6 98.3 111.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 51 49 0 100 56.7 85.6 65.1 101.3 57.8 52.2 66.9 78.6 88.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------