***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 4.9 11.4 11.9 81.6 57.6 47.8 5.1 9.5 14.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 56 44 0 100 5.9 12.5 9.6 69.8 52.3 43.0 5.5 11.8 17.9 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 6.1 13.2 11.2 77.1 52.8 46.1 6.5 12.1 20.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 4.8 10.2 11.3 77.4 54.1 46.8 3.1 9.6 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 51 49 0 100 3.0 8.8 10.8 75.0 54.1 45.0 3.2 5.8 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 52 48 0 100 2.1 3.4 12.5 71.4 49.0 42.2 0.5 4.2 15.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 59 41 0 100 3.8 9.4 9.6 71.7 54.8 43.1 7.1 9.0 12.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 4.9 10.2 12.7 72.5 51.0 42.8 3.9 9.1 21.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 51 49 0 100 2.6 5.4 11.7 75.0 53.8 44.9 1.3 4.9 11.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 12.6 7.2 13.4 72.2 50.9 43.2 3.0 7.2 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 1.7 4.4 9.8 72.7 52.9 44.0 1.1 3.4 8.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 1.9 4.1 9.5 68.9 50.3 42.2 0.6 4.0 8.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 1.6 3.1 8.6 59.8 48.2 40.5 1.9 3.5 8.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 17.0 11.1 14.4 75.7 48.8 43.7 6.1 11.3 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 5.0 5.2 9.8 82.4 60.7 48.6 1.5 3.0 6.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 53 47 0 100 2.1 5.0 9.5 69.1 52.7 42.8 1.3 4.4 10.1 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 4.9 11.2 9.3 72.6 54.4 42.1 5.0 9.9 15.3 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 4.0 6.9 15.2 72.9 48.0 42.5 1.4 7.8 14.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 5.8 12.7 10.0 71.1 51.8 43.7 4.2 11.8 16.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 5.8 9.7 14.2 70.6 46.3 41.2 4.4 10.5 15.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.6 11.9 11.5 77.6 55.6 46.8 1.6 9.0 16.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 4.4 10.8 10.1 75.0 53.8 42.7 5.0 8.4 13.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 6.3 13.1 10.4 73.6 51.9 44.7 6.1 11.4 21.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 19.3 15.1 13.7 76.5 51.4 44.8 5.9 14.0 26.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 6.1 13.6 13.8 86.1 59.0 48.6 6.4 12.2 17.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 76 24 100 8.8 5.8 6.6 57.1 50.1 42.8 0.5 5.8 14.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 54 46 0 100 5.2 14.4 13.3 83.9 58.6 47.7 4.6 11.2 18.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 5.2 5.8 10.5 76.6 55.4 46.8 1.8 4.3 7.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 7.5 11.7 15.4 71.8 46.7 41.3 7.0 12.8 18.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 7.0 13.6 9.9 70.8 52.4 44.2 7.2 12.5 18.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------