***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 11.2 13.7 16.2 102.2 60.6 52.7 4.6 8.6 16.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.9 21.0 16.3 111.3 65.9 55.1 8.0 10.7 21.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 18.3 22.4 17.2 104.1 61.4 53.7 5.0 9.0 25.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 18.0 20.2 15.4 103.2 61.8 52.4 4.4 12.2 24.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 81 19 100 20.0 22.9 15.0 105.2 64.2 52.8 3.2 15.5 23.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 83 17 100 12.4 13.8 17.0 102.5 60.7 52.2 2.8 9.2 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 13.3 14.4 15.9 107.6 64.2 54.3 7.1 9.5 16.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 21.8 23.3 18.4 109.6 61.9 54.1 8.2 16.7 28.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.2 19.6 16.2 104.3 61.3 53.2 6.8 14.5 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 25.9 30.2 18.7 106.2 61.0 54.0 8.2 21.8 32.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 18.8 23.9 13.1 103.0 64.0 53.0 6.0 16.1 25.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 10.6 18.2 14.1 101.3 61.9 51.8 3.2 6.8 19.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 84 16 100 12.6 13.2 13.4 90.9 59.8 49.8 6.5 10.3 22.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 24.2 23.9 20.1 98.8 61.1 51.7 12.1 21.4 26.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 81 19 100 7.5 12.7 13.0 109.0 66.0 54.9 1.1 3.6 12.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 84 16 100 12.9 12.3 12.8 92.9 60.9 51.1 5.4 10.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 80 20 100 11.4 16.6 15.4 106.2 66.2 55.0 3.9 7.9 16.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 19.5 17.6 21.2 102.9 59.4 53.6 5.9 15.8 24.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 17.3 19.5 16.6 109.5 65.4 55.1 6.9 12.1 19.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 52 48 0 100 7.2 20.1 20.8 107.9 61.9 55.0 8.7 13.3 24.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 11.7 13.5 15.8 102.1 61.0 52.7 4.7 8.9 17.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 9.4 10.3 16.6 106.2 66.3 55.7 3.2 8.6 10.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 15.4 16.8 16.2 102.2 64.2 53.7 5.7 10.7 17.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.4 24.9 19.4 100.5 60.1 52.5 9.4 19.2 27.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 15.6 22.1 17.0 101.8 61.4 52.7 4.5 10.4 29.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 13.8 14.0 12.1 98.0 61.3 50.4 4.5 10.5 18.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 16.0 17.0 17.0 100.3 61.0 52.2 6.9 11.5 21.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 82 18 100 15.8 19.2 14.6 105.1 63.2 53.9 3.9 13.7 20.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 24.7 33.1 22.7 108.4 62.1 55.0 11.1 18.9 33.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 19.5 23.4 16.1 106.0 63.9 53.7 5.2 15.6 24.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------