***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 20.3 31.2 20.3 110.2 63.9 54.5 5.5 15.9 33.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 21.7 28.5 18.4 114.1 64.0 55.3 12.7 18.9 28.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 26.9 28.8 20.8 112.7 67.0 56.7 10.8 23.1 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 21.4 26.9 22.0 103.9 63.8 56.1 10.0 16.9 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 17.0 18.3 22.5 116.5 66.4 59.5 7.6 14.4 17.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 81 19 100 22.7 23.1 25.6 106.1 62.6 56.3 13.6 19.5 23.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 14.0 18.0 19.0 118.0 65.1 56.0 8.9 11.9 18.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 41 59 100 30.0 32.6 23.8 117.0 68.8 61.2 13.0 18.5 30.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.7 27.5 23.8 117.6 67.1 60.3 11.9 17.2 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 41 59 100 27.8 25.6 25.2 119.5 68.5 61.7 5.2 17.6 22.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 17.3 23.9 22.0 111.9 66.7 59.5 10.3 14.9 23.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 13.2 15.4 19.9 108.6 67.0 58.9 5.4 11.6 15.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 82 18 100 16.8 18.8 22.7 109.5 66.3 58.9 6.5 14.3 18.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 78 22 100 19.4 28.8 23.7 117.1 66.8 58.5 11.9 14.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 13.8 20.1 20.4 106.1 66.0 57.6 2.3 8.8 20.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 11.3 11.7 21.6 105.9 64.3 57.8 2.7 8.8 12.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 14.7 22.9 18.0 116.7 65.7 57.2 7.6 11.5 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 22.0 22.1 26.5 117.5 67.0 60.9 10.7 16.7 22.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 22.0 22.3 18.5 111.4 63.6 54.8 9.0 19.9 22.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 18.8 27.6 27.7 124.1 70.1 61.9 6.9 15.0 25.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 16.4 23.7 21.9 115.0 65.8 58.5 9.3 12.8 23.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 18.6 22.9 18.7 115.9 65.2 56.4 11.1 15.8 23.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 18.2 19.8 18.6 108.1 64.6 54.8 11.2 16.8 20.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 23.9 24.8 23.9 113.6 65.6 59.6 14.6 21.5 24.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 80 20 100 13.2 21.5 24.1 112.9 62.6 55.7 6.0 8.4 22.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 10.2 17.2 22.5 119.5 68.6 61.8 1.9 6.9 15.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.6 24.4 22.6 110.3 61.7 54.6 4.0 8.4 29.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 40 60 100 23.9 26.1 21.9 108.8 66.7 59.1 5.8 12.4 25.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 25.9 31.9 28.2 117.7 67.4 60.7 13.3 23.5 31.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 22.3 22.4 19.3 113.7 64.1 55.3 13.0 19.8 22.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------