***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 51 49 0 100 11.5 27.2 24.5 112.8 63.9 53.7 8.2 17.3 27.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 79 21 100 19.6 23.7 19.0 110.0 61.4 54.0 9.5 15.0 25.4 30 Becej 27400G00 54 46 0 100 12.5 26.5 21.3 102.7 60.2 51.0 7.8 20.9 33.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 9.5 31.3 30.0 121.3 72.9 54.6 10.1 16.5 26.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 9.9 24.0 27.2 114.7 68.3 54.5 11.4 15.1 23.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 54 46 0 100 7.6 17.5 30.9 120.7 65.1 57.2 10.8 13.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 17.6 18.8 18.5 105.7 60.3 52.8 6.1 13.7 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 18.8 33.2 29.8 103.1 59.6 51.1 23.0 28.5 33.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 12.0 22.6 26.1 105.7 59.6 51.5 10.6 19.6 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 56 44 0 100 9.2 20.9 30.8 105.8 60.2 51.9 10.0 13.9 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 9.1 20.2 25.2 107.5 64.9 52.1 10.7 14.9 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 6.6 18.6 24.9 105.3 64.2 51.8 7.5 10.3 19.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 61 39 0 100 6.3 20.1 25.1 114.6 67.9 53.9 6.0 11.6 19.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 60 40 0 100 15.6 31.2 25.8 99.6 58.3 49.5 16.4 25.0 36.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 30 70 100 19.8 24.7 29.9 146.5 78.2 56.1 5.9 9.4 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 7.0 17.9 25.1 113.6 66.3 54.0 7.2 10.6 17.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 21.6 22.5 16.6 98.0 58.1 51.5 5.9 14.0 32.1 29 Palic 37000G16 58 42 0 100 14.2 27.0 31.4 103.4 61.4 51.7 17.3 21.3 31.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 24.5 24.8 19.0 105.5 59.9 52.5 5.2 19.8 26.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.5 24.4 31.9 103.4 60.1 52.5 7.3 18.6 27.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 8.8 18.6 24.5 106.5 62.5 51.5 10.2 14.7 20.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 24.9 19.1 15.1 85.4 52.4 47.5 8.6 18.4 28.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 10.7 22.9 19.2 97.8 56.5 50.1 13.2 19.5 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 57 43 0 100 12.2 26.7 25.2 100.2 59.1 49.5 15.9 22.2 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 19.9 26.7 29.7 123.5 70.2 58.0 11.6 17.0 23.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 5.3 13.1 21.1 101.3 60.9 50.5 4.9 10.7 14.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 51 49 0 100 8.8 26.0 27.3 119.6 68.9 56.9 8.1 16.0 22.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 62 38 0 100 6.0 22.9 29.4 124.4 72.5 54.6 5.8 12.5 19.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 16.1 31.7 30.0 101.4 59.3 50.5 15.8 26.0 33.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 21.4 18.8 19.8 109.3 61.8 53.3 10.1 16.7 24.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------