***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.3 25.0 -0.8 35.5 37.0 25.2 25.6 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 63 37 0 100 25.0 25.0 24.8 -1.3 29.7 31.4 25.1 25.6 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 24.7 25.4 25.2 -0.9 35.6 37.3 25.3 25.7 26.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 18.0 18.4 22.6 -0.6 37.5 39.8 18.3 18.7 19.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 56 44 0 100 25.4 25.6 23.1 -0.8 33.3 35.6 25.6 26.2 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 23.9 23.7 20.3 -1.1 22.5 27.9 23.9 25.1 25.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 24.7 24.8 24.8 -1.2 30.0 32.8 24.9 25.2 26.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 13.5 13.9 21.3 -0.6 37.5 38.3 13.7 14.5 15.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 24.8 25.0 23.6 -0.7 35.5 36.9 24.9 25.5 26.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 54 46 0 100 24.7 24.8 22.0 -0.6 37.1 38.0 24.7 25.4 26.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 59 41 0 100 25.1 25.1 23.2 -0.8 31.4 34.7 25.2 26.0 26.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 24.3 24.2 22.6 -0.8 34.5 36.2 24.2 25.2 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 77 23 0 100 25.0 24.9 22.0 -1.2 23.6 28.6 25.2 26.2 27.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.9 25.0 23.5 -0.5 39.8 41.6 24.8 25.5 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 62 38 0 100 26.1 26.2 24.4 -0.8 36.2 36.3 26.1 26.4 27.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 67 33 0 100 25.6 25.7 22.5 -1.0 27.0 31.5 25.9 26.5 27.4 30 Nis 06700G01 57 43 0 100 24.5 24.5 24.7 -1.1 31.8 33.9 24.5 25.0 26.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 25.3 24.7 21.4 -0.5 40.1 41.3 24.4 25.0 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 60 40 0 100 24.4 24.6 25.0 -1.2 31.4 33.0 24.6 25.1 25.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 20.9 20.4 19.1 -0.4 42.4 41.8 19.9 20.6 21.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 75 25 100 26.1 25.3 24.6 -0.7 37.4 38.7 25.3 25.6 26.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 54 46 0 100 24.9 24.9 24.7 -1.0 34.9 36.3 24.9 25.4 26.5 30 Sombor 26600G07 55 45 0 100 24.7 25.0 25.0 -1.0 34.5 36.1 25.0 25.4 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.5 24.6 23.4 -0.5 38.4 40.6 24.5 25.0 25.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 58 42 0 100 25.1 25.3 23.4 -0.8 33.5 35.8 25.3 25.6 26.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 24.7 24.7 21.8 -1.1 24.8 29.9 25.0 25.8 26.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 55 45 0 100 24.8 25.0 24.2 -0.9 33.8 35.6 24.9 25.3 26.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 26.1 26.2 23.2 -0.7 35.0 37.4 26.0 26.8 27.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 20.6 19.8 20.5 -0.4 41.7 41.7 19.6 20.3 21.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 61 39 0 100 24.7 25.0 24.9 -1.2 31.2 32.7 25.1 25.3 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------