***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 28.3 28.1 27.1 0.0 53.5 51.0 25.6 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 27.8 27.3 26.7 -0.4 48.7 46.9 24.8 27.3 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 28.1 28.0 27.5 0.2 54.8 53.6 24.9 27.6 28.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 21.1 21.1 25.3 0.4 56.8 54.6 17.8 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.4 25.5 0.3 54.5 53.4 25.7 27.5 29.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.9 26.5 22.8 -0.1 51.0 50.1 24.3 26.5 27.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 27.6 26.6 26.7 -0.4 48.8 47.3 24.7 26.9 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 16.2 15.9 24.1 0.5 56.7 55.5 13.8 15.8 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 76 24 100 27.6 28.2 25.7 0.3 55.6 54.1 24.9 26.9 28.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.4 28.0 24.5 0.5 56.3 55.8 25.1 26.8 28.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.6 25.4 0.3 53.5 53.0 25.2 26.8 28.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.8 26.9 25.5 0.3 55.9 53.5 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 28.0 27.6 24.2 -0.1 52.2 49.8 25.4 27.5 28.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 28.1 28.0 25.5 0.5 56.7 55.8 25.2 27.6 28.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 26.8 28.8 26.3 0.1 53.3 51.2 25.9 28.5 29.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.6 28.3 24.9 0.1 53.2 51.8 25.8 28.1 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 27.0 26.4 26.6 -0.3 49.8 47.5 24.6 26.4 28.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 38 62 100 28.0 27.6 24.0 0.7 59.3 58.0 24.3 26.3 28.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.5 27.0 -0.3 51.1 48.5 24.3 26.5 28.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 22.3 23.1 21.6 0.7 59.7 58.2 20.2 21.7 23.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 25.6 28.5 26.7 0.4 56.5 54.8 25.0 27.3 28.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 27.3 26.6 26.6 -0.1 50.8 49.4 24.6 26.5 29.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 27.4 27.4 27.2 0.0 54.5 50.9 24.6 26.8 29.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 27.3 27.7 25.6 0.6 58.4 56.9 24.6 26.7 28.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.2 28.3 25.4 0.1 54.5 51.7 25.4 27.8 28.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 83 17 100 27.6 27.5 24.8 0.0 52.0 50.3 25.3 27.4 27.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 27.6 27.3 26.1 0.0 53.8 50.7 25.1 27.3 28.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 28.8 28.8 25.6 0.3 55.3 53.7 26.4 28.4 29.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.6 22.7 23.0 0.7 59.7 58.0 19.5 22.0 23.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 27.5 26.9 26.9 -0.3 49.9 48.2 24.4 26.9 28.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------