***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 55 45 0 100 25.1 25.9 26.2 -0.6 43.5 42.2 25.2 25.9 28.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 24.0 25.5 25.9 -1.0 37.9 39.4 25.2 26.0 27.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 26.5 25.5 26.6 -0.5 43.7 43.6 24.9 25.6 26.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 79 21 100 19.5 18.8 24.3 -0.2 44.2 46.6 18.1 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 26.8 25.5 24.5 -0.4 41.4 43.9 25.1 26.1 27.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 23.6 24.1 21.7 -0.7 37.9 41.4 24.0 25.1 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 56 44 0 100 23.9 25.4 25.9 -0.9 39.4 40.0 24.7 26.2 27.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 15.4 14.3 23.0 -0.2 45.1 46.6 13.1 14.8 15.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 26.3 24.9 24.6 -0.4 41.5 44.0 24.0 25.6 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.0 25.0 23.4 -0.3 43.1 45.6 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 79 21 100 26.5 25.0 24.3 -0.5 41.8 43.5 24.5 25.7 27.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 25.6 24.5 24.3 -0.4 44.0 45.4 24.0 25.1 25.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.1 23.0 -0.7 38.0 41.8 24.8 25.8 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 26.0 25.1 24.5 -0.2 44.5 46.5 24.6 25.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 27.5 26.5 25.4 -0.4 42.4 45.1 26.3 27.0 28.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 27.0 26.0 23.8 -0.6 40.6 43.2 25.7 26.2 28.3 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 23.2 25.0 25.9 -0.8 38.9 41.0 24.8 25.4 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 25.5 24.5 23.0 0.0 45.4 47.9 24.0 25.0 25.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 23.6 24.9 26.1 -0.9 39.4 40.6 24.6 25.3 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 21.5 20.8 20.5 0.0 47.8 49.5 19.0 21.0 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 26.5 25.7 25.7 -0.3 43.1 44.7 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 23.8 25.5 25.8 -0.7 41.0 42.1 25.0 25.9 27.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.3 26.3 -0.7 41.8 42.8 24.7 25.6 27.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 25.9 25.1 24.6 -0.2 44.6 46.5 24.2 25.2 26.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 24.4 25.5 24.5 -0.4 42.9 43.5 25.3 26.5 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 78 22 100 26.2 25.3 23.5 -0.6 41.1 43.2 24.8 25.6 27.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 23.4 25.2 25.3 -0.5 42.7 42.3 24.7 25.4 26.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 27.5 26.3 24.5 -0.3 43.0 45.6 26.0 27.0 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 83 17 100 20.8 19.9 22.0 0.0 46.1 48.3 19.0 20.3 21.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 23.8 25.0 26.0 -0.9 39.8 40.2 24.8 25.9 26.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------