***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 27.5 26.1 25.2 -0.8 41.7 43.7 25.2 27.2 28.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 76 24 100 26.7 25.3 25.0 -1.3 36.6 38.5 24.7 26.2 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 27.0 25.8 25.3 -0.9 41.7 42.9 24.7 26.5 27.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 81 19 100 20.2 18.8 22.5 -0.4 44.2 46.2 17.6 19.9 20.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.2 23.3 -0.7 41.9 42.3 25.3 27.0 28.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 26.2 24.7 20.4 -0.9 39.0 38.5 23.7 25.5 26.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 26.5 25.0 25.0 -1.2 38.3 40.3 24.3 26.0 26.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 79 21 100 15.2 14.1 21.2 -0.7 42.2 42.7 13.1 14.5 15.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 23.9 25.5 23.9 -0.7 41.6 42.7 25.0 26.5 27.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 27.0 25.6 22.0 -0.7 41.7 42.5 24.8 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 27.4 26.1 23.4 -0.8 41.3 41.3 25.1 26.8 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 26.3 25.4 22.5 -0.8 41.4 41.5 24.3 25.7 26.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 77 23 100 27.5 26.4 22.3 -1.1 37.7 37.1 25.3 26.9 28.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.6 25.4 23.8 -0.6 44.7 45.4 24.3 26.0 27.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 27.8 26.9 24.6 -0.6 44.3 44.0 25.7 27.3 28.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 28.1 26.9 22.7 -0.9 39.7 39.2 25.5 27.6 28.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 26.1 24.9 24.9 -1.1 39.4 40.9 24.1 25.6 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.9 24.9 21.4 -0.6 45.2 44.3 24.5 25.4 26.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 26.1 24.8 25.1 -1.3 37.4 39.3 24.0 25.7 26.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 21.3 20.4 19.1 -0.5 44.8 45.2 19.7 20.6 22.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 27.2 25.9 24.9 -0.7 43.0 44.2 25.1 26.7 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 79 21 100 26.4 25.3 24.9 -0.9 40.9 42.1 24.8 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 26.4 25.2 25.2 -1.1 38.8 41.1 24.2 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.1 23.6 -0.6 43.8 44.5 24.2 25.8 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 27.2 25.9 23.7 -0.8 41.0 42.5 25.3 26.7 27.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.0 25.4 21.6 -1.1 37.5 38.0 24.7 26.4 27.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 26.6 25.8 24.4 -0.8 40.5 42.9 24.5 26.1 27.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 81 19 100 28.0 27.4 23.3 -0.5 44.5 44.6 25.9 27.7 28.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 21.4 20.1 20.6 -0.5 45.0 44.9 19.5 20.8 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 26.6 25.1 25.1 -1.2 37.8 39.8 24.5 26.0 26.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------