***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-06.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 68 32 0 100 21.9 21.6 21.6 -2.0 24.2 27.8 22.3 24.1 25.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 79 21 0 100 22.1 22.0 21.5 -2.5 22.8 24.3 23.3 24.6 26.7 30 Becej 27400G00 73 27 0 100 22.0 22.2 21.4 -2.2 24.2 25.9 23.0 24.6 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 70 30 0 100 15.3 15.1 18.2 -2.0 22.5 25.6 16.1 16.9 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 81 19 0 100 22.6 22.4 19.3 -2.2 21.5 24.2 23.3 24.8 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 90 10 0 100 20.7 20.2 16.4 -2.6 14.6 17.4 22.2 23.8 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 72 28 0 100 22.0 21.6 21.5 -2.2 22.5 25.9 22.8 24.1 26.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 72 28 0 100 11.1 10.8 17.1 -2.0 23.0 25.0 11.6 13.2 14.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 74 26 0 100 22.2 22.1 20.4 -2.1 23.0 25.6 22.9 24.7 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 73 27 0 100 22.0 22.5 18.1 -2.1 23.1 25.3 22.8 23.6 25.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 23.0 22.8 19.6 -2.3 21.4 23.7 23.2 25.0 26.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 21.9 22.1 18.3 -2.2 21.6 23.7 22.5 23.5 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 88 12 0 100 22.5 22.3 18.7 -2.8 16.9 18.9 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 67 33 0 100 22.3 22.3 20.2 -1.8 25.0 29.1 23.2 24.3 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 74 26 0 100 23.8 23.4 21.2 -2.2 21.0 24.3 24.3 25.3 26.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 86 14 0 100 23.3 23.2 18.8 -2.6 18.4 20.7 23.7 25.4 27.0 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 22.1 21.5 21.4 -2.2 25.2 27.1 22.7 24.3 26.2 29 Palic 37000G16 68 32 0 100 22.0 21.9 17.3 -1.9 23.5 26.8 22.2 23.6 25.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 78 22 0 100 21.7 21.8 21.5 -2.5 24.0 25.1 23.0 24.2 26.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 67 33 0 100 17.2 17.2 15.1 -1.9 24.4 26.8 18.0 19.1 20.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 70 30 0 100 22.0 22.5 21.2 -2.1 24.0 26.3 22.9 24.6 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 64 36 0 100 22.7 21.9 21.4 -2.1 25.4 28.1 23.2 24.5 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 71 29 0 100 22.1 22.3 21.5 -2.3 25.3 26.8 23.3 24.4 26.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 67 33 0 100 22.0 22.0 19.9 -2.0 23.3 27.3 22.9 23.9 26.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 72 28 0 100 22.2 22.1 20.2 -2.1 22.0 25.3 23.1 24.7 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 22.6 22.2 17.2 -2.6 15.7 18.9 23.2 24.6 26.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 70 30 0 100 21.9 21.9 20.9 -2.1 22.6 26.1 23.0 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 77 23 0 100 23.7 23.5 19.3 -2.2 20.6 24.0 24.3 25.6 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 17.3 17.1 16.6 -1.9 24.1 27.0 17.9 18.9 20.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 80 20 0 100 21.7 21.8 21.6 -2.4 23.0 24.8 23.2 24.7 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------