***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 31.05.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.5 15.2 -0.8 29.1 31.9 13.7 14.2 14.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 64 36 0 100 13.1 13.0 14.9 -0.9 28.1 29.6 13.2 13.8 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 15.0 15.0 15.4 -0.7 31.0 33.5 15.1 15.7 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.0 10.0 12.9 -0.5 34.2 36.6 10.0 10.7 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 11.6 12.0 13.1 -0.6 30.2 33.9 12.1 12.5 12.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 10.8 10.7 10.9 -0.5 29.3 34.1 11.0 11.6 12.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 67 33 0 100 13.3 13.5 14.9 -0.9 27.9 29.8 13.6 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 59 41 0 100 5.6 6.1 10.9 -0.4 36.2 38.4 6.0 6.5 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.2 13.4 -0.5 30.8 35.4 13.2 13.6 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.2 11.7 -0.4 34.7 37.9 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 12.7 13.0 12.8 -0.5 34.2 36.1 12.9 13.4 13.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 60 40 0 100 10.7 10.8 11.7 -0.5 33.9 35.6 10.8 11.4 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 12.2 12.1 11.4 -0.6 28.2 32.2 12.4 12.9 13.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.3 13.7 13.4 -0.4 39.9 41.2 13.7 14.1 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 75 25 100 14.8 14.0 14.5 -0.5 31.1 34.7 14.1 14.6 14.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 57 43 0 100 13.0 13.1 12.2 -0.6 29.9 32.9 13.2 13.7 14.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 13.7 13.7 14.8 -0.8 30.9 31.7 13.7 14.2 14.7 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 11.6 11.5 11.1 -0.3 37.0 40.0 11.4 12.2 12.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 62 38 0 100 13.3 13.4 15.0 -0.9 29.2 30.9 13.5 13.8 14.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.4 7.4 9.0 -0.3 37.6 40.5 7.3 7.9 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 12.9 13.3 14.6 -0.5 32.4 35.8 13.3 13.6 13.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 55 45 0 100 13.0 13.0 14.8 -0.8 32.4 33.2 13.0 13.4 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 12.8 12.9 15.0 -0.8 31.1 33.4 12.9 13.2 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 13.8 13.4 13.2 -0.4 38.0 39.3 13.3 13.6 14.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 62 38 0 100 12.8 12.7 13.9 -0.7 26.9 31.5 12.9 13.6 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 63 37 0 100 11.7 11.5 10.8 -0.6 27.6 30.5 12.0 12.3 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 12.9 12.8 14.5 -0.8 26.5 30.6 13.1 13.5 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.8 12.1 13.4 -0.5 33.7 36.5 12.0 12.6 13.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 53 47 0 100 9.9 10.2 10.5 -0.3 40.1 41.9 9.8 10.4 11.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.5 13.5 15.1 -0.9 27.2 29.9 13.6 14.2 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------