***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 21.06.2021.-27.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.4 16.5 -0.4 45.3 43.7 14.1 14.5 15.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 14.7 14.2 16.4 -0.6 44.3 43.0 13.8 14.3 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 57 43 0 100 15.1 16.0 16.9 -0.3 46.0 45.6 15.2 16.1 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 10.2 10.9 14.3 -0.2 43.1 46.0 10.0 11.8 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 64 36 0 100 12.0 12.9 14.2 -0.4 40.6 43.9 12.3 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.4 11.8 12.3 -0.3 42.1 45.2 10.9 12.1 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 54 46 0 100 13.9 14.2 16.4 -0.6 45.1 42.5 13.9 14.4 15.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 57 43 0 100 6.2 7.0 12.2 -0.3 44.6 45.6 6.3 7.6 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 64 36 0 100 13.2 13.9 14.3 -0.4 40.1 43.6 13.7 14.1 14.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 60 40 0 100 13.2 13.9 12.9 -0.4 41.6 44.7 13.7 14.1 14.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 61 39 0 100 13.2 13.8 13.7 -0.5 40.3 43.2 13.6 14.0 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 11.1 11.7 13.0 -0.3 43.9 45.1 11.5 11.8 12.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.2 12.3 -0.4 41.0 44.3 12.5 13.6 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 59 41 0 100 13.9 14.6 14.5 -0.2 45.7 47.8 14.3 14.9 15.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 14.7 15.2 15.6 -0.4 40.3 43.9 14.8 15.6 15.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 59 41 0 100 13.2 13.8 13.1 -0.4 40.7 44.0 13.7 14.1 14.5 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 15.3 14.8 16.2 -0.5 47.2 44.5 14.2 14.9 15.8 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.8 12.5 12.2 -0.2 45.7 47.4 12.2 12.8 13.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 52 48 0 100 13.5 14.2 16.5 -0.5 44.7 43.9 13.7 14.3 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 8.0 8.7 10.1 -0.2 48.2 48.4 8.1 8.7 9.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 13.3 14.0 15.8 -0.3 43.9 45.7 13.7 14.1 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 75 25 100 14.5 14.0 16.2 -0.4 47.7 45.5 13.3 14.1 15.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 13.1 13.6 16.4 -0.4 45.1 45.1 13.2 13.7 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 58 42 0 100 13.4 14.4 14.3 -0.3 44.3 46.7 13.7 14.6 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 56 44 0 100 13.0 13.8 15.0 -0.4 42.8 44.4 13.3 14.1 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.3 12.7 12.1 -0.4 39.9 42.9 12.5 13.2 13.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 12.7 13.6 15.7 -0.5 42.4 43.2 13.4 13.8 14.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 12.6 13.1 14.6 -0.3 41.3 45.4 12.5 13.6 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 10.2 11.2 11.7 -0.1 49.2 49.2 10.0 11.3 12.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 54 46 0 100 13.6 14.2 16.5 -0.6 44.3 42.9 14.0 14.3 15.1 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------