***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 14.06.2021.-20.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 13.4 13.9 16.2 -0.6 36.2 41.3 13.8 14.5 14.9 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 62 38 0 100 12.1 13.1 15.9 -0.7 36.1 38.9 12.8 13.8 15.3 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 14.5 15.1 16.5 -0.4 41.3 43.1 14.7 15.9 16.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 55 45 0 100 9.2 10.5 14.0 -0.2 44.9 46.2 9.4 10.7 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 11.6 12.3 13.9 -0.3 43.0 45.6 12.0 12.8 13.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 11.9 11.3 11.8 -0.2 42.8 45.2 11.0 11.4 12.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 62 38 0 100 12.7 13.3 15.9 -0.7 35.0 38.7 13.1 14.1 15.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.8 6.7 12.0 0.0 52.6 50.5 5.0 6.4 7.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 52 48 0 100 12.9 13.7 14.1 -0.2 44.0 46.2 13.1 13.9 14.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.1 13.8 12.7 -0.1 50.1 49.4 12.8 13.8 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 14.2 13.5 13.5 -0.2 46.0 46.7 12.9 13.9 14.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.9 11.5 12.8 -0.1 49.3 49.0 10.7 11.5 12.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.4 12.8 12.0 -0.2 42.9 45.4 12.2 13.1 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 51 49 0 100 13.2 14.1 14.2 -0.1 44.4 47.7 13.5 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 13.8 14.4 15.3 -0.3 42.2 43.8 13.8 14.7 16.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.4 12.9 12.8 -0.2 43.5 45.9 12.7 14.1 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 62 38 0 100 12.9 13.7 15.8 -0.7 36.9 39.6 13.6 14.4 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 12.7 12.4 12.0 0.1 52.8 51.5 11.7 12.3 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 12.9 13.3 16.0 -0.6 37.3 40.0 13.2 13.8 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.3 7.8 9.8 0.1 52.5 51.6 7.5 7.8 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 58 42 0 100 12.5 13.4 15.4 -0.3 42.7 45.0 12.8 13.8 14.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 12.3 12.8 15.7 -0.6 38.8 41.2 12.6 13.4 14.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 12.4 12.8 16.0 -0.5 39.2 42.3 12.7 13.2 14.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 14.4 14.0 14.0 -0.1 47.4 48.5 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 12.2 13.1 14.7 -0.5 38.3 42.0 12.6 13.4 14.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 75 25 100 12.9 11.9 11.7 -0.4 39.6 43.5 11.5 12.5 13.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 61 39 0 100 12.1 12.5 15.4 -0.5 36.2 41.1 12.3 13.4 14.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 53 47 0 100 11.9 12.3 14.3 -0.2 44.5 46.2 11.8 12.5 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 10.9 10.5 11.4 0.1 52.2 51.3 9.3 10.4 11.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 62 38 0 100 13.0 13.4 16.2 -0.7 36.0 39.6 13.2 14.3 15.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------