***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 27.05.2021. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 07.06.2021.-13.06.2021. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 15.1 14.2 15.4 -0.6 37.1 41.5 13.8 14.9 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 13.7 15.1 -0.8 37.2 40.5 13.4 14.5 15.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.4 15.1 15.5 -0.6 38.7 42.0 14.9 16.1 16.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.3 13.0 -0.4 38.2 45.2 10.0 11.0 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.4 13.4 -0.5 35.7 43.2 12.3 12.9 13.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 11.1 10.7 -0.6 34.0 40.0 11.1 11.8 12.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 15.0 13.9 15.1 -0.7 37.7 40.7 13.6 14.8 15.4 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 7.1 6.0 10.9 -0.3 39.6 45.4 5.5 6.8 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 14.4 13.7 13.6 -0.4 38.4 45.2 13.2 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 14.0 13.4 11.9 -0.3 40.0 46.5 13.2 13.7 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.1 13.0 -0.4 36.9 44.1 12.8 13.5 14.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.2 11.8 -0.4 36.5 42.4 11.0 11.8 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 13.7 12.6 11.5 -0.6 34.1 39.1 12.5 13.6 13.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 81 19 100 14.8 14.2 13.7 -0.1 44.8 49.9 13.5 14.6 15.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.3 14.2 14.5 -0.5 36.5 43.3 14.1 15.1 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.2 12.3 -0.6 34.5 41.1 13.0 14.2 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 81 19 100 15.2 14.4 15.0 -0.6 40.7 42.5 13.5 15.0 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.8 12.4 11.3 -0.2 41.1 48.2 11.8 12.5 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 81 19 100 14.8 13.8 15.2 -0.7 37.9 40.9 13.3 14.6 15.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 80 20 100 8.5 8.1 9.2 -0.2 42.4 48.2 7.9 8.3 8.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 14.4 13.6 14.8 -0.4 39.0 44.4 13.5 14.2 14.8 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 81 19 100 14.2 13.6 15.1 -0.6 40.1 42.5 13.2 14.0 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.3 13.4 15.3 -0.5 40.9 42.7 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.1 13.5 13.5 -0.2 42.4 48.0 13.1 13.8 15.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 14.7 13.3 14.1 -0.7 34.9 41.1 13.2 14.4 15.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 53 47 0 100 11.4 12.1 10.8 -0.6 32.7 39.3 12.1 12.5 13.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 14.6 13.3 14.7 -0.7 35.4 40.3 13.0 14.2 15.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.2 12.5 13.5 -0.4 38.6 44.9 12.1 13.0 13.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 81 19 100 11.1 10.6 10.6 -0.2 43.8 49.0 10.3 10.8 11.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 79 21 100 15.4 14.0 15.3 -0.7 37.2 40.3 13.8 15.1 15.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------