***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 81 19 100 72.7 87.2 75.0 112.4 63.1 57.5 55.2 68.1 88.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 53.0 68.8 58.9 101.0 54.5 50.5 51.3 66.1 82.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 80 20 100 96.9 107.1 67.4 105.9 59.0 53.8 71.2 89.0 113.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 87.1 83.8 66.0 104.3 59.2 53.1 60.9 75.3 86.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 84 16 100 70.7 67.0 67.9 106.2 58.6 55.2 49.7 63.6 73.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 48.8 64.8 69.4 95.7 50.1 48.5 47.0 64.8 83.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 74.3 70.4 61.5 104.1 56.0 52.4 48.3 64.0 74.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 95.3 87.3 72.2 97.7 50.2 50.3 67.9 87.3 107.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 82 18 100 71.3 84.2 71.9 106.3 57.5 54.1 51.8 63.8 91.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 89.1 84.2 77.7 100.7 53.3 50.9 53.5 79.2 95.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 83 17 100 69.8 67.6 64.0 99.7 54.1 52.1 51.0 65.4 73.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 78 22 100 58.8 54.4 63.3 98.2 50.2 50.9 37.9 54.3 67.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 53 47 0 100 40.6 58.7 66.8 97.1 50.7 50.7 44.6 58.1 72.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 109.1 101.7 79.6 101.0 57.8 52.8 78.9 99.3 122.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 61.9 69.8 56.6 106.3 63.2 55.0 27.6 55.5 72.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 55.6 48.8 64.5 101.1 54.3 52.7 29.5 46.9 65.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 75.7 69.2 56.3 98.1 52.2 49.7 53.1 66.1 93.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 84.7 79.6 84.9 101.1 49.2 50.2 60.9 79.7 99.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 79.3 79.5 59.0 100.0 53.4 49.7 63.5 70.2 92.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 73.1 66.8 79.1 97.3 48.4 48.6 53.2 67.1 88.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 83 17 100 80.3 80.4 72.7 109.9 59.3 56.3 44.4 76.7 86.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 77.1 73.8 56.9 97.6 52.4 49.4 53.0 73.1 82.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 58.6 77.5 60.0 97.9 56.3 49.7 60.6 73.9 89.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 78 22 100 104.4 97.7 76.5 102.7 53.2 51.2 73.7 94.2 111.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 72.3 90.2 83.6 114.2 62.3 58.6 54.4 67.0 92.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 37.6 38.7 49.2 81.6 31.8 39.4 38.9 52.1 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 83.0 99.1 84.3 115.5 63.7 58.8 57.2 76.3 99.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 62.9 62.7 62.4 104.6 60.7 53.9 42.3 58.9 71.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 109.6 101.8 84.2 99.6 49.6 49.7 70.6 102.2 112.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 84.9 83.0 62.2 103.5 57.2 52.2 58.4 77.5 86.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------