***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 52 48 0 100 7.2 16.7 12.1 88.5 59.4 45.2 5.6 14.3 20.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 13.8 18.6 11.9 111.2 68.8 51.2 3.2 10.8 17.7 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 6.9 20.2 12.3 98.4 63.3 47.0 6.5 12.4 20.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 4.5 11.9 12.7 97.6 60.5 46.8 3.1 9.2 14.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 14.3 12.2 13.1 102.7 61.4 48.7 2.5 9.9 13.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 4.7 15.4 13.8 100.3 64.5 47.8 2.8 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 14.1 16.6 11.7 113.2 68.8 51.1 3.2 8.8 16.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.3 13.0 12.6 85.7 56.0 46.9 3.0 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 9.2 12.1 14.9 111.2 65.3 49.0 2.6 6.2 12.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 14.5 13.8 15.2 95.4 58.6 47.2 2.4 8.1 16.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 13.0 10.2 10.8 86.8 59.6 47.1 1.4 7.0 10.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 9.7 9.4 10.5 86.4 57.7 46.9 2.0 5.1 12.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 2.3 7.5 12.2 99.1 61.1 48.8 2.4 4.9 10.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 53 47 0 100 7.0 18.1 15.2 88.4 58.5 47.8 7.2 12.3 26.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 1.8 8.6 10.5 106.3 66.2 47.3 1.4 3.6 8.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 51 49 0 100 2.9 10.0 11.6 92.9 59.6 47.3 1.5 5.8 14.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 75 25 100 14.9 24.4 11.9 111.4 67.7 51.7 5.0 9.9 20.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 10.8 13.7 17.9 97.8 57.9 47.6 1.5 7.3 16.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 13.1 18.0 11.9 104.0 66.9 50.4 4.2 9.9 17.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 13.3 13.2 15.1 87.7 54.9 45.7 6.1 11.1 15.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 14.2 23.5 14.0 106.2 66.6 47.5 1.3 10.5 23.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 3.8 12.6 12.4 107.6 64.8 50.6 4.4 7.4 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 52 48 0 100 7.1 16.9 11.5 89.7 61.6 48.9 8.7 12.5 21.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.7 21.6 15.4 101.1 60.4 48.6 7.8 16.9 23.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.2 18.8 14.1 96.1 64.3 48.3 5.1 9.2 19.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 3.0 14.4 8.5 88.7 61.8 46.0 1.0 6.8 16.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 17.1 19.1 13.6 91.5 63.2 46.8 5.0 12.7 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 3.1 8.0 12.1 101.4 62.5 46.6 1.7 6.5 8.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 19.2 17.4 17.5 95.5 56.8 47.5 8.2 16.5 19.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.2 20.4 11.7 107.9 67.7 50.7 3.9 10.9 19.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------