***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 75 25 100 11.7 22.1 18.6 136.5 76.7 54.1 4.3 8.0 19.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 55 45 0 100 5.6 20.9 13.9 109.0 64.6 50.8 5.7 11.6 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 51 49 0 100 7.8 43.0 16.8 127.7 73.0 55.3 7.3 14.5 31.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 76 24 100 22.6 41.4 14.4 119.5 71.1 54.2 9.0 14.7 36.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 16.5 22.9 13.7 103.5 62.4 52.1 4.1 13.3 25.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 15.1 15.2 15.9 107.4 59.9 53.1 4.8 11.6 20.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 53 47 0 100 4.6 12.0 14.8 108.6 64.8 52.2 4.2 9.3 12.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 21.3 20.7 15.5 105.7 62.2 52.5 10.8 16.5 23.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 83 17 100 17.3 21.6 14.5 99.7 59.9 52.7 9.1 14.0 25.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 81 19 100 26.0 29.1 16.2 100.2 60.7 52.4 9.6 21.3 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 77 23 100 17.7 22.2 12.4 102.0 67.2 51.8 7.8 14.3 22.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 9.4 13.9 13.2 101.6 59.3 51.0 3.0 5.9 18.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 13.4 18.6 13.3 96.7 60.8 50.6 5.5 11.1 21.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 24.9 28.5 18.4 108.4 60.3 50.9 12.1 19.2 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.3 26.2 13.7 141.3 76.9 53.8 2.5 7.1 18.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.2 12.9 13.0 106.2 65.4 51.6 2.7 8.0 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 4.2 11.7 13.5 104.4 63.5 51.5 3.6 7.3 13.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 82 18 100 23.4 26.6 17.9 96.5 60.1 51.8 7.7 19.6 28.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 57 43 0 100 5.9 21.1 14.0 112.3 66.4 50.7 6.9 11.5 21.1 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 19.4 19.3 16.4 102.7 61.1 49.8 9.6 13.4 22.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 79 21 100 14.1 19.5 15.9 113.9 67.2 54.5 4.8 9.1 18.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 60 40 0 100 4.5 16.2 14.0 106.6 63.6 50.2 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 4.8 16.8 14.3 114.4 65.1 50.6 4.8 10.4 17.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 30.8 33.7 18.1 112.3 62.9 53.4 13.9 24.3 38.1 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 18.5 39.4 19.0 131.1 75.2 55.4 6.0 10.6 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 12.1 15.1 10.8 90.4 60.2 49.3 4.7 8.6 22.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 17.0 30.7 21.0 138.5 76.9 55.0 8.1 12.6 23.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 76 24 100 21.5 28.5 13.2 119.0 70.5 52.6 3.3 18.1 21.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 33.4 34.6 17.9 97.7 57.2 51.4 10.8 29.3 37.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 75 25 100 21.4 29.3 15.5 117.1 68.1 52.6 4.0 16.5 28.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------