***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 34.4 18.2 113.9 66.7 53.3 4.6 15.9 34.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 9.1 25.2 16.0 113.9 64.5 53.0 8.9 19.8 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 20.1 30.4 17.2 114.8 65.2 55.9 5.9 15.3 31.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 30 70 100 28.4 31.9 19.7 145.3 77.6 65.9 6.9 18.9 21.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 79 21 100 17.8 25.4 18.2 131.6 71.2 61.3 8.3 13.0 17.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 32 68 100 30.6 32.4 22.7 129.9 73.0 60.5 12.8 21.4 30.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 60 40 0 100 6.2 20.7 17.1 119.5 66.8 55.2 10.8 12.5 20.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 23.1 37.3 19.6 121.9 68.1 58.2 10.6 16.8 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.9 21.3 17.6 112.1 66.6 55.8 10.0 18.0 21.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 21.4 31.8 20.3 123.1 69.6 58.9 4.5 16.6 30.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 26.7 27.2 20.1 130.6 74.9 61.5 7.1 13.2 20.1 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 6.1 20.0 17.9 119.6 68.6 56.6 4.1 13.1 16.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 76 24 100 20.8 25.1 20.6 122.3 67.0 58.4 5.5 17.5 22.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 19.5 33.2 20.1 115.6 69.3 56.5 11.1 13.6 26.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 23.6 30.7 18.2 151.4 79.9 63.9 2.5 10.6 16.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 36 64 100 23.4 24.6 19.7 130.8 72.5 60.2 2.6 8.3 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 7.2 21.9 15.6 111.7 66.1 54.7 4.7 13.8 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 53 47 0 100 10.3 22.7 22.1 119.5 68.2 57.3 8.9 15.3 21.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 20.5 22.9 15.4 109.0 62.9 52.0 6.7 17.5 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.8 25.8 21.7 116.7 65.6 56.6 6.4 17.4 26.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 76 24 100 18.2 26.7 18.7 118.5 69.9 57.8 8.6 13.8 21.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 18.3 21.1 16.0 123.0 68.0 56.4 8.8 14.7 20.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 17.8 20.0 15.0 103.3 61.6 52.1 6.2 16.0 21.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 23.1 21.5 19.2 112.9 64.4 55.7 10.7 19.4 21.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 51 49 0 100 4.6 25.2 21.0 118.9 68.0 56.8 4.4 8.9 25.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 19.0 20.7 17.1 107.9 58.7 54.6 0.9 16.2 24.4 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 75 25 100 19.8 29.1 21.3 119.6 68.1 56.7 3.0 16.0 28.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 17.6 25.0 19.7 162.0 80.9 66.1 3.6 10.1 13.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 9.9 25.9 24.2 123.8 69.0 59.4 8.6 18.4 25.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 11.5 24.2 16.8 117.4 65.2 54.1 12.1 19.5 24.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------