***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 85 15 100 17.4 17.0 26.1 111.2 62.1 57.5 8.1 14.0 21.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 15.1 12.0 17.1 82.2 50.2 47.3 7.7 11.8 21.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 77 23 100 23.9 19.4 21.1 92.1 55.3 51.6 9.3 17.6 25.9 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 18.1 13.6 19.2 78.3 48.3 47.2 11.5 13.8 19.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 14.1 15.1 23.0 95.3 58.6 53.6 8.4 12.0 20.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 58 42 0 100 7.1 11.1 17.1 64.6 37.6 35.8 10.5 13.1 17.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 13.5 11.2 17.9 86.2 55.9 51.0 5.3 8.9 17.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 27.1 23.3 24.5 85.5 48.0 46.1 16.5 23.7 31.5 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 19.1 21.8 24.9 103.9 60.8 55.3 10.9 17.3 23.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 79 21 100 17.0 14.5 25.9 91.0 51.8 49.5 9.0 14.4 20.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 82 18 100 16.1 16.1 20.7 84.3 55.3 49.8 9.1 14.9 17.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 12.2 11.4 21.8 88.2 52.3 48.4 6.8 10.6 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 81 19 100 11.2 9.3 20.7 79.7 51.4 47.4 5.8 9.2 15.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 84 16 100 25.8 23.9 25.8 95.7 57.3 53.4 14.9 21.1 31.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 78 22 100 11.3 9.7 14.1 66.2 47.3 42.6 5.4 9.8 12.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 80 20 100 13.2 11.3 20.3 84.2 53.7 49.3 7.8 10.6 16.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 18.5 14.6 15.2 77.2 50.8 46.8 5.0 14.4 20.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 23.4 21.6 27.0 94.1 52.1 49.8 12.5 21.0 28.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 23.9 18.9 17.8 84.6 48.7 47.4 5.9 19.6 26.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 16.7 11.8 25.9 87.5 47.4 46.0 8.8 12.9 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 17.9 22.3 24.2 103.9 66.0 55.8 9.5 15.0 22.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 18.0 11.5 14.5 70.3 45.7 44.3 5.6 13.2 22.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 80 20 100 21.0 19.8 19.2 89.6 52.6 49.1 9.2 18.7 24.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 82 18 100 25.1 23.4 23.8 91.3 53.0 51.0 10.0 23.1 27.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 85 15 100 19.5 23.5 29.4 112.0 67.8 60.1 10.6 18.0 22.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 4.1 3.9 12.7 55.8 33.4 32.6 3.9 7.3 12.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 84 16 100 16.8 20.6 28.5 113.0 64.2 59.0 7.2 14.9 21.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 13.9 11.2 17.3 70.9 45.3 44.1 7.8 11.6 15.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 24.7 17.4 24.6 86.3 46.2 45.2 13.5 21.2 30.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 15.7 11.3 18.3 84.3 50.8 47.7 7.4 11.1 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------