***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 26.1 25.6 25.6 -0.2 48.6 48.6 25.3 25.6 26.2 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.8 26.0 0.1 57.4 53.0 25.0 25.4 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 24.6 25.7 25.9 -0.1 52.4 49.3 25.1 25.6 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 18.0 18.5 23.2 -0.2 50.0 48.1 18.0 18.5 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 75 25 100 26.2 25.9 23.9 -0.1 50.2 49.1 25.3 25.9 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 78 22 100 25.0 25.1 21.6 0.1 59.5 54.4 23.8 24.8 25.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 25.5 25.3 26.0 0.1 56.6 53.5 24.8 25.1 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 14.4 14.8 22.1 0.2 60.5 55.7 13.6 14.3 14.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.6 24.5 0.0 52.7 51.2 24.6 25.5 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 25.7 25.6 22.9 0.1 59.0 54.5 24.5 25.4 25.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 78 22 100 26.2 26.2 23.9 0.1 59.3 53.2 25.0 25.8 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 25.2 25.5 23.2 0.2 60.4 54.7 24.2 24.9 25.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 26.3 26.3 23.0 0.2 58.9 54.7 25.2 25.9 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.5 24.3 0.2 60.4 55.0 24.6 25.3 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 26.1 26.3 25.0 -0.2 48.5 47.5 26.0 26.3 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 26.8 26.8 23.4 0.1 59.5 53.4 25.8 26.3 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 79 21 100 25.3 25.1 25.9 0.2 60.4 54.9 24.3 24.9 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 79 21 100 25.1 25.3 22.3 0.2 62.4 56.3 24.2 24.8 25.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.1 26.0 0.1 57.3 53.0 24.4 24.9 25.6 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.7 21.1 19.9 0.3 61.3 56.9 19.8 20.5 21.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 52 48 0 100 24.7 25.6 25.3 -0.2 49.7 48.4 25.0 25.6 26.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.6 25.6 0.1 59.9 54.3 24.6 25.2 26.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 79 21 100 25.8 25.7 25.9 0.2 59.5 55.0 24.9 25.4 26.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.4 25.2 24.2 0.1 59.1 53.8 24.5 25.0 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 53 47 0 100 25.0 25.5 24.1 -0.3 46.4 46.7 25.1 25.6 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 82 18 100 25.8 26.1 22.7 0.5 64.0 59.7 24.9 25.6 26.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 25.7 25.2 24.9 -0.2 48.1 48.5 24.7 25.2 26.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 26.0 26.6 23.9 -0.2 50.0 48.4 25.9 26.6 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.5 20.7 21.4 0.3 63.1 56.8 19.4 20.2 20.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 25.6 25.3 26.0 0.0 55.9 52.0 24.9 25.2 25.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------