***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 28.4 27.9 27.1 -0.4 45.7 47.7 25.0 27.9 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 28.0 27.3 27.4 -0.1 47.9 50.7 24.4 27.6 28.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 75 25 100 28.3 26.7 27.4 -0.3 45.7 48.0 24.3 27.8 28.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 21.3 20.3 25.0 -0.6 44.8 44.5 17.9 20.9 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 25.9 27.8 25.3 -0.5 48.1 45.2 25.2 28.0 28.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 51 49 0 100 24.1 26.2 23.0 -0.4 47.7 45.9 24.3 26.3 27.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 75 25 100 27.5 27.0 27.4 -0.1 50.4 51.0 24.3 27.0 28.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 16.5 16.2 23.7 -0.1 52.1 48.4 13.6 16.2 16.9 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 75 25 100 27.8 27.1 25.6 -0.4 50.6 46.9 24.5 27.1 28.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 75 25 100 28.0 27.4 24.3 -0.2 51.8 48.2 24.8 27.3 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 25.3 27.4 25.1 -0.4 49.5 46.3 24.6 27.4 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 76 24 100 26.9 26.3 24.8 -0.2 50.7 47.5 24.5 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 25.4 27.4 23.9 -0.3 49.5 46.3 25.4 27.5 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 28.2 27.9 25.4 0.0 53.7 51.0 24.8 27.7 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 28.6 27.3 26.1 -0.7 41.9 43.4 26.3 28.2 29.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 52 48 0 100 26.1 28.2 24.6 -0.4 48.4 46.0 25.5 28.3 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 76 24 100 27.4 27.0 27.2 0.0 51.0 51.6 23.6 26.9 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 27.4 27.0 23.8 0.0 52.4 50.5 24.1 26.9 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.8 27.4 -0.1 48.0 50.4 24.2 26.8 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 22.8 22.7 21.5 0.1 55.4 51.1 19.8 22.4 23.2 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 28.3 27.2 26.5 -0.5 46.9 46.1 24.4 27.9 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.4 26.9 -0.1 50.5 50.4 24.3 27.3 28.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 76 24 100 27.8 27.5 27.3 0.0 50.5 51.2 24.4 27.4 28.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 27.5 27.0 25.4 -0.1 50.6 49.9 24.2 26.9 28.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 76 24 100 28.2 27.1 25.3 -0.6 43.4 45.0 24.4 27.7 28.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 77 23 100 27.6 27.4 24.6 0.1 54.8 51.1 25.1 27.0 28.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 27.4 26.7 26.2 -0.4 45.7 47.2 24.2 27.0 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 51 49 0 100 26.5 27.8 25.3 -0.7 42.8 43.8 26.7 28.4 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 22.9 22.8 23.0 0.1 55.1 51.2 19.0 22.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 76 24 100 27.7 27.2 27.4 -0.2 47.8 49.8 24.4 27.2 28.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------