***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 27.1 26.8 26.8 0.2 54.8 52.5 24.7 26.6 28.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 78 22 100 26.3 25.7 27.1 0.5 57.5 56.3 24.1 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 25.7 25.7 27.2 0.3 55.9 54.2 24.1 25.0 27.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 19.7 19.6 24.8 0.3 54.1 53.6 17.5 19.0 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 77 23 100 26.2 25.8 25.3 0.4 54.4 54.2 24.8 25.4 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 80 20 100 25.6 25.7 23.1 0.8 61.7 59.7 23.9 25.0 25.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 26.1 25.6 27.0 0.5 57.2 55.6 23.9 25.4 27.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 77 23 100 15.2 15.0 23.7 0.8 61.5 58.7 13.1 14.7 16.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 25.6 25.0 25.6 0.5 54.7 55.5 23.9 24.8 27.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.7 24.3 0.7 59.0 57.4 24.2 25.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 25.9 26.3 25.0 0.6 57.8 56.9 24.4 25.1 27.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 77 23 100 25.7 25.6 24.7 0.8 60.7 58.6 24.0 25.0 26.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 79 21 100 26.6 26.7 23.9 0.7 59.4 58.6 25.0 26.1 27.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 76 24 100 25.3 26.5 25.4 0.7 62.1 58.2 23.7 24.3 26.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 27.3 26.9 25.9 0.2 54.2 53.3 25.4 26.7 28.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 27.3 27.7 24.6 0.7 58.2 57.7 25.3 26.7 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.7 27.0 0.6 59.2 57.1 23.7 25.1 27.3 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.8 23.9 0.8 61.3 58.4 23.6 24.4 26.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 78 22 100 25.4 25.2 27.1 0.5 58.1 56.6 23.5 24.6 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 21.4 22.0 21.4 0.9 64.9 59.7 19.4 20.8 22.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 26.0 25.5 26.4 0.3 54.6 53.4 24.3 25.3 27.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 77 23 100 26.3 26.0 26.7 0.6 59.5 57.2 24.0 25.5 27.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.8 27.1 0.7 59.4 57.5 23.5 25.0 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 77 23 100 25.3 25.2 25.4 0.7 59.9 57.5 23.5 24.4 26.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 26.4 25.8 25.0 0.1 53.4 52.0 24.5 25.8 27.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 26.4 27.2 24.4 1.2 64.4 63.0 24.9 26.0 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.2 25.9 0.2 53.9 52.7 23.7 25.0 27.3 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 27.2 26.9 25.2 0.3 54.6 54.0 25.5 26.5 28.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 77 23 100 20.8 20.7 22.9 0.9 61.6 58.9 19.1 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 78 22 100 25.8 25.6 27.0 0.4 56.7 55.5 23.8 24.9 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------