***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 80 20 100 27.4 26.1 25.0 -0.6 44.6 44.1 25.5 26.8 27.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 87 13 100 26.5 26.0 25.5 -0.3 49.1 47.9 24.8 26.2 28.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 26.6 25.8 25.2 -0.6 44.5 44.2 25.0 26.0 28.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 52 48 0 100 17.6 17.5 22.3 -0.8 39.1 41.0 17.4 19.4 20.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 27.3 26.3 23.2 -0.7 40.1 42.3 25.3 26.7 28.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 59 41 0 100 23.4 25.0 20.8 -0.5 44.0 45.4 23.5 25.5 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 87 13 100 26.2 25.7 25.4 -0.3 47.7 48.0 24.6 25.8 27.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 51 49 0 100 12.9 14.5 21.3 -0.3 45.7 47.0 13.2 14.7 15.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 27.0 25.9 23.9 -0.5 42.6 43.7 25.0 26.5 27.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 77 23 100 27.0 25.6 22.3 -0.3 44.4 46.4 24.9 26.4 27.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 24.9 26.0 23.3 -0.5 42.2 44.6 25.5 26.9 27.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 54 46 0 100 23.7 25.5 22.3 -0.4 43.8 45.9 24.0 25.7 26.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 75 25 100 27.7 25.8 22.4 -0.4 41.0 45.3 24.9 27.1 27.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 80 20 100 26.5 25.7 23.9 -0.2 46.7 48.4 24.9 25.8 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 55 45 0 100 25.1 26.0 24.3 -0.9 37.7 39.8 25.7 27.0 28.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 25.3 26.8 22.7 -0.5 40.5 44.5 25.7 27.5 28.4 30 Nis 06700G01 0 87 13 100 26.1 25.8 25.3 -0.2 49.9 49.8 23.5 25.8 27.0 29 Palic 37000G16 0 77 23 100 25.8 25.0 21.6 -0.2 46.1 48.3 24.6 25.1 26.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 85 15 100 26.0 25.6 25.4 -0.3 48.9 47.6 24.4 25.6 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 77 23 100 21.4 20.7 19.3 -0.2 50.2 48.6 19.8 20.7 21.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 81 19 100 27.1 25.9 24.8 -0.7 42.9 42.6 25.1 26.6 27.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 88 12 100 26.5 26.3 25.2 -0.1 49.8 49.7 24.5 26.3 27.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 84 16 100 26.5 25.9 25.4 -0.2 48.9 48.7 24.4 26.0 27.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 26.2 25.3 23.7 -0.3 45.1 46.9 24.9 25.5 27.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 78 22 100 27.1 25.8 23.6 -0.7 42.0 42.4 25.3 26.4 27.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 24.7 26.0 21.6 -0.2 47.5 47.8 24.5 26.2 27.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 80 20 100 26.7 25.8 24.3 -0.6 43.8 44.0 24.8 26.1 27.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 25.2 26.1 23.1 -0.8 37.6 40.7 25.9 27.2 28.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 21.2 20.4 20.9 -0.1 48.0 48.9 19.4 20.4 22.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 85 15 100 26.4 25.8 25.4 -0.4 47.8 46.7 24.8 25.9 27.8 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------