***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 91 9 100 25.0 23.8 23.7 0.1 47.4 48.9 22.2 24.8 25.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 94 6 100 24.7 24.6 24.1 0.2 50.2 51.5 23.5 24.6 26.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 93 7 100 25.1 24.6 23.7 0.0 47.3 48.1 22.3 24.9 26.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 89 11 100 17.2 17.7 20.7 0.3 54.1 54.2 15.5 16.9 18.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 88 12 100 25.4 25.4 21.9 0.2 53.3 53.5 22.6 25.0 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 86 14 100 23.8 25.0 19.6 0.6 64.3 60.9 22.1 23.5 25.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 92 8 100 24.6 24.7 24.2 0.4 53.2 53.3 22.7 24.4 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 91 9 100 12.9 13.7 19.7 0.5 57.9 57.2 11.0 12.6 14.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 24.8 24.9 22.9 0.3 53.9 54.1 22.0 24.6 25.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 91 9 100 24.5 25.2 20.8 0.4 56.5 55.9 22.2 24.3 25.3 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 90 10 100 25.0 25.2 22.3 0.5 58.9 56.7 23.4 24.8 25.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 92 8 100 23.6 24.5 20.8 0.5 59.5 58.1 22.4 23.4 25.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 88 12 100 25.1 25.3 21.8 0.7 59.8 60.9 23.2 24.8 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 24.4 24.3 22.4 0.2 51.6 51.4 23.1 24.2 25.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 25.8 26.0 23.8 0.5 55.6 56.2 23.7 25.6 26.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 90 10 100 25.6 26.1 21.7 0.6 60.2 58.6 23.7 25.4 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 91 9 100 24.3 24.1 23.9 0.3 52.6 53.2 23.0 24.0 25.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 95 5 100 23.7 24.2 19.8 0.4 55.7 54.9 21.9 23.5 25.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 95 5 100 24.2 24.0 24.0 0.2 49.6 50.8 23.0 24.0 25.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 94 6 100 18.7 19.0 17.4 0.2 52.6 52.4 17.3 18.5 20.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 92 8 100 24.9 24.6 23.6 0.1 49.8 50.7 22.1 24.6 26.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 94 6 100 24.6 24.6 23.7 0.2 52.0 52.1 23.3 24.4 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 94 6 100 24.9 24.8 23.8 0.3 50.2 51.7 23.2 24.8 26.1 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 94 6 100 24.0 23.9 22.2 0.2 51.7 52.2 22.3 23.8 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 88 12 100 25.2 24.4 22.5 0.0 48.4 49.2 22.6 25.0 26.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 88 12 100 24.6 25.3 20.1 0.8 61.1 60.9 22.6 24.3 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 88 12 100 24.6 24.0 23.1 0.0 47.9 48.8 22.7 24.3 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 89 11 100 26.1 26.1 22.0 0.5 56.9 56.7 23.8 25.9 26.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 93 7 100 18.8 19.1 19.0 0.3 54.4 53.7 17.5 18.6 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 93 7 100 24.9 24.7 24.1 0.2 49.7 50.6 23.1 24.7 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------