***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 42 58 100 14.6 14.3 16.3 0.4 65.7 62.1 13.5 14.1 14.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 34 66 100 14.5 14.6 16.3 0.6 71.1 66.1 13.0 13.6 14.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 16.1 16.2 16.5 0.5 69.6 63.8 15.0 15.5 16.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 80 20 100 10.9 10.8 13.8 0.3 61.2 60.0 9.9 10.6 11.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 12.5 12.7 14.1 0.3 62.4 60.4 12.0 12.3 12.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 82 18 100 11.7 11.8 11.7 0.3 63.2 62.0 10.9 11.5 11.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 39 61 100 14.4 14.5 16.4 0.5 69.3 64.3 13.3 14.0 14.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 82 18 100 6.5 6.7 11.6 0.3 63.6 60.5 5.8 6.4 6.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.9 14.4 0.4 65.2 61.5 13.3 13.4 13.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.6 13.9 12.7 0.3 63.9 60.9 12.9 13.5 13.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.5 13.6 13.6 0.3 62.6 60.5 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 80 20 100 11.5 11.5 12.5 0.3 62.5 59.6 10.8 11.2 11.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 83 17 100 13.0 13.3 12.3 0.3 62.9 61.4 12.4 12.9 13.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 35 65 100 14.6 14.8 14.4 0.5 72.1 66.4 13.6 13.9 14.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 77 23 100 14.7 14.7 15.4 0.2 59.0 58.1 14.0 14.5 15.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 81 19 100 13.8 13.9 13.0 0.3 64.5 62.0 13.1 13.6 13.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 31 69 100 14.7 14.8 16.2 0.6 73.5 67.7 13.6 13.8 14.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 42 58 100 12.6 12.7 12.1 0.4 65.7 63.4 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 32 68 100 14.4 14.4 16.3 0.6 72.0 66.7 13.3 13.7 14.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 7.9 8.4 9.8 0.4 65.7 63.0 7.3 7.6 8.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.8 13.7 15.7 0.4 64.8 62.0 13.1 13.6 13.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 25 75 100 14.0 13.9 16.2 0.7 74.0 68.9 12.8 13.3 13.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 14.0 14.3 16.2 0.6 73.4 67.7 12.7 13.1 14.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 14.2 14.3 14.3 0.5 69.3 64.7 13.1 13.5 14.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 13.7 13.9 15.0 0.3 60.9 59.5 12.8 13.6 13.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 12.8 12.8 11.8 0.4 65.8 64.1 11.8 12.3 12.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 13.6 13.7 15.7 0.4 64.3 61.6 12.8 13.4 13.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.9 14.3 0.3 62.7 60.5 11.9 12.5 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 43 57 100 10.8 10.8 11.3 0.4 66.2 62.6 9.6 10.5 10.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 36 64 100 14.7 14.5 16.4 0.5 69.4 64.7 13.5 14.1 14.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------