***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 20.06.2016.-26.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 58 42 0 100 14.0 14.7 17.2 -0.1 50.3 48.7 14.1 14.6 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 57 43 0 100 13.4 14.8 17.2 0.1 53.9 50.9 13.5 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 56 44 0 100 15.0 16.4 17.5 -0.1 51.3 48.8 14.9 16.4 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 56 44 0 100 10.0 11.5 14.9 -0.2 49.1 48.5 9.6 11.6 12.6 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 55 45 0 100 12.0 13.1 14.9 -0.1 50.3 48.6 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 75 25 100 12.2 12.0 13.0 0.1 53.6 52.2 11.2 11.9 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 57 43 0 100 13.6 14.4 17.3 0.0 51.9 50.4 13.7 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 55 45 0 100 6.1 7.7 12.9 0.1 56.3 52.6 6.3 7.4 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 13.2 14.3 15.1 -0.1 51.3 48.4 13.3 14.2 15.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 13.2 14.5 13.7 0.0 54.1 50.6 13.1 14.3 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 13.3 14.3 14.5 0.0 53.8 51.4 13.1 14.2 14.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 11.2 12.1 13.7 0.1 54.5 52.4 11.3 12.0 12.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 12.6 13.7 13.0 -0.1 48.5 49.7 12.7 13.7 13.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 55 45 0 100 13.5 14.9 15.2 0.0 55.5 50.5 14.1 14.6 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 14.6 15.2 16.2 -0.2 46.3 47.3 14.8 15.3 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.3 13.9 0.0 51.0 51.1 13.3 14.3 14.8 30 Nis 06700G01 58 42 0 100 14.0 15.5 17.2 0.1 57.2 51.6 14.3 14.7 16.0 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 11.7 12.9 13.2 0.1 54.6 51.4 11.8 12.8 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 13.2 14.2 17.2 0.1 54.0 51.2 13.7 14.1 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 7.8 8.8 10.8 0.2 55.6 52.8 7.7 8.7 9.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 13.1 14.3 16.5 -0.2 49.6 47.6 13.4 14.3 15.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 59 41 0 100 13.1 14.1 17.0 0.1 53.7 51.6 13.3 14.0 15.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 57 43 0 100 12.7 13.9 17.1 0.1 56.1 51.6 12.8 13.5 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 56 44 0 100 13.3 14.7 15.0 0.0 54.6 50.0 13.6 14.5 15.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 57 43 0 100 12.9 13.9 15.8 -0.1 48.7 48.8 13.1 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 55 45 0 100 12.2 13.1 12.8 0.1 50.8 52.7 12.4 13.1 13.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 58 42 0 100 12.5 13.7 16.5 -0.1 49.5 48.8 13.3 13.7 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 12.5 13.1 15.3 -0.2 47.3 47.9 12.4 13.2 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 56 44 0 100 9.9 11.6 12.5 0.1 56.9 52.0 9.8 11.0 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 57 43 0 100 13.7 14.7 17.3 0.0 51.8 50.1 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------