***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 13.06.2016.-19.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 76 24 100 14.7 14.5 17.0 0.5 58.5 58.3 13.8 14.3 14.8 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 15.4 15.0 17.0 0.8 69.0 62.9 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 79 21 100 16.0 16.3 17.2 0.5 59.4 58.9 14.6 15.7 17.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 78 22 100 11.4 11.4 14.6 0.4 56.6 57.9 9.3 10.9 12.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 13.2 13.4 14.6 0.5 60.6 58.5 11.9 12.9 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 12.1 12.6 12.4 0.5 60.9 59.0 10.8 11.7 12.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 37 63 100 15.2 15.0 17.1 0.7 68.0 61.8 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 80 20 100 6.9 7.2 12.3 0.5 61.2 60.9 5.2 6.5 7.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 81 19 100 14.1 14.3 14.9 0.5 62.1 60.2 13.1 13.8 14.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 82 18 100 13.9 13.9 13.3 0.5 59.5 60.3 13.0 13.6 14.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 14.0 14.4 13.9 0.4 58.4 58.7 13.0 13.7 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 79 21 100 12.0 12.0 13.1 0.5 61.2 60.2 10.8 11.6 12.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 80 20 100 13.4 14.1 12.6 0.5 64.7 60.3 12.5 13.1 14.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 82 18 100 14.7 15.0 15.0 0.6 63.9 60.6 13.5 14.6 15.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 76 24 100 15.2 15.1 15.9 0.3 58.3 56.7 14.0 14.9 15.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 78 22 100 14.3 15.0 13.5 0.5 63.8 59.9 13.0 13.8 15.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 39 61 100 15.5 15.4 17.0 0.8 69.2 63.5 13.3 14.8 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 81 19 100 12.7 12.9 12.8 0.5 61.0 60.8 11.7 12.5 13.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 42 58 100 15.0 14.5 17.0 0.7 67.0 62.3 13.1 14.2 14.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 8.3 8.5 10.3 0.6 63.8 61.8 7.3 7.9 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 80 20 100 13.9 14.3 16.3 0.5 61.8 58.6 13.1 13.5 14.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 14.7 14.8 16.7 0.8 68.9 62.5 12.6 13.5 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 14.0 14.3 16.8 0.7 65.7 61.3 12.7 13.7 14.3 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 81 19 100 14.5 14.6 14.7 0.5 60.8 60.2 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 13.8 14.3 15.5 0.5 58.5 57.6 12.7 13.4 14.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 81 19 100 12.9 13.7 12.5 0.6 68.3 62.9 11.7 12.6 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 77 23 100 14.0 13.9 16.3 0.6 59.8 58.5 12.2 13.7 14.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 78 22 100 13.1 13.4 15.0 0.4 60.2 58.0 12.0 12.7 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 10.9 11.1 12.0 0.5 60.4 60.1 9.3 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 15.4 14.9 17.1 0.7 66.7 61.4 12.9 14.5 14.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------