***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 06.06.2016.-12.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 84 16 100 15.1 14.9 15.4 -0.1 47.3 50.0 13.9 14.9 15.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 84 16 100 14.6 14.2 15.4 0.0 49.0 51.8 13.2 14.2 15.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 81 19 100 16.5 16.2 15.7 0.0 49.8 51.1 14.7 16.2 16.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 77 23 100 11.5 10.8 12.9 -0.3 46.2 47.2 9.8 11.0 12.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 13.2 12.9 13.3 -0.2 47.9 49.2 12.3 13.0 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 76 24 100 12.0 11.6 10.8 -0.2 46.3 48.7 11.0 11.6 12.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 84 16 100 15.0 14.7 15.4 -0.1 47.9 50.7 13.4 14.8 15.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 78 22 100 6.7 6.5 11.0 0.0 52.0 52.1 5.5 6.2 7.2 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 78 22 100 14.1 13.8 13.7 0.0 51.9 52.1 13.2 13.8 14.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 13.7 13.5 12.0 0.1 53.4 52.6 12.9 13.4 14.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 80 20 100 13.6 13.3 13.0 0.0 48.9 51.0 13.0 13.4 13.9 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 11.9 11.7 11.8 -0.1 48.9 50.6 10.7 11.7 11.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 78 22 100 13.5 13.2 11.7 -0.1 48.7 50.9 12.7 13.3 13.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 14.7 15.0 13.8 0.3 55.8 57.3 13.4 14.4 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 13.8 14.5 14.5 -0.4 45.7 45.8 14.0 14.6 15.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 14.2 14.0 12.4 -0.1 46.9 50.3 12.9 14.0 14.7 30 Nis 06700G01 0 84 16 100 15.4 15.2 15.3 0.1 49.8 52.6 13.5 15.3 15.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 78 22 100 12.7 12.5 11.5 0.1 55.1 54.1 11.7 12.5 13.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 84 16 100 15.1 14.9 15.4 0.1 51.4 53.0 13.4 14.9 15.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 78 22 100 8.4 8.4 9.4 0.2 56.8 54.4 7.5 8.2 8.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 82 18 100 14.2 14.0 15.0 -0.1 48.4 50.9 13.0 14.0 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 83 17 100 14.3 14.2 15.4 0.3 54.9 55.9 13.6 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 83 17 100 14.4 14.4 15.4 0.2 53.3 54.8 13.2 14.2 14.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 80 20 100 14.1 14.1 13.6 0.1 53.8 54.4 13.0 13.8 14.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 82 18 100 14.5 14.0 14.2 -0.3 45.6 47.6 13.3 14.3 14.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 12.6 12.3 11.1 -0.1 48.1 49.4 12.1 12.4 12.9 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 81 19 100 14.4 14.0 14.8 -0.2 47.3 49.3 13.4 14.0 15.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 77 23 100 13.2 12.9 13.4 -0.3 47.6 47.1 11.9 12.9 13.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 78 22 100 11.0 10.9 10.8 0.2 54.9 54.5 10.1 10.6 11.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 84 16 100 15.3 15.1 15.5 0.0 48.8 51.1 13.6 15.2 15.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------