***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 26.05.2016. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 30.05.2016.-05.06.2016. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 9 91 100 13.6 13.5 15.6 1.4 72.2 72.2 11.7 12.6 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 18 82 100 13.9 14.0 15.5 1.5 74.1 72.3 11.5 12.6 13.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 18 82 100 15.6 15.6 15.8 1.4 73.6 72.8 12.9 14.4 15.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 26 74 100 10.4 10.5 13.0 1.3 71.2 72.4 8.1 9.5 10.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 12.0 12.1 13.5 1.1 70.6 69.4 10.7 11.2 11.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 41 59 100 10.6 10.9 10.7 1.0 69.2 69.0 9.6 10.1 10.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 14.0 13.9 15.5 1.5 73.1 72.1 11.9 13.2 13.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 88 12 100 5.2 5.7 10.3 0.6 64.6 62.9 4.0 5.1 5.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 38 62 100 13.1 12.7 13.8 1.0 69.8 69.3 11.7 12.2 12.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 87 13 100 12.3 12.9 11.6 0.7 66.8 65.0 11.5 12.1 12.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 48 52 100 12.4 12.7 13.0 0.8 67.4 66.1 11.2 11.7 12.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 48 52 100 10.9 10.8 11.3 0.6 65.6 64.0 9.8 10.4 10.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 12.2 12.4 11.8 0.8 69.6 66.7 10.9 11.3 12.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 27 73 100 14.1 13.7 13.6 1.2 71.9 70.6 11.9 12.9 13.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 22 78 100 14.1 14.4 15.2 1.2 79.0 75.3 13.0 13.2 13.6 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 40 60 100 13.0 13.3 12.4 0.9 69.4 68.4 11.4 12.2 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 14 86 100 14.4 14.4 15.4 1.6 75.8 73.9 12.3 13.1 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 45 55 100 11.8 11.7 11.1 0.9 67.2 66.6 9.9 10.8 11.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 17 83 100 13.8 13.9 15.5 1.5 73.7 72.5 11.6 12.8 13.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 89 11 100 7.0 7.4 8.7 0.6 65.1 63.3 6.1 6.8 7.5 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 21 79 100 13.3 13.2 15.2 1.3 71.8 72.7 11.6 12.1 12.6 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 15 85 100 13.5 13.4 15.5 1.6 76.0 74.6 11.5 12.4 13.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 13 87 100 14.0 14.1 15.4 1.5 73.9 73.0 11.0 12.4 13.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 30 70 100 13.4 13.2 13.7 1.2 70.7 70.6 11.4 12.3 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 23 77 100 13.6 13.5 14.6 1.2 70.4 70.2 11.1 12.1 13.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 33 67 100 11.7 11.8 10.9 1.0 67.4 70.2 10.5 11.0 11.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 16 84 100 14.1 13.4 15.2 1.4 72.6 72.3 11.6 12.2 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 20 80 100 12.1 12.4 13.8 1.4 77.7 76.4 10.8 11.1 11.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 46 54 100 9.9 10.4 10.0 0.7 66.2 64.0 8.1 8.8 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 18 82 100 14.1 14.0 15.7 1.4 72.6 71.7 11.8 12.8 13.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------