***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 76 24 0 100 51.2 45.2 39.4 54.6 17.0 22.8 54.9 75.7 90.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 72 28 0 100 48.2 49.3 40.4 63.6 28.2 29.4 55.3 68.5 85.9 30 Becej 27400G00 75 25 0 100 54.6 48.7 39.7 56.8 20.9 24.4 69.5 91.0 113.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 74 26 0 100 53.6 46.2 39.1 52.7 19.2 22.7 68.2 82.3 88.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 75 25 0 100 43.9 44.2 38.6 54.7 20.0 22.8 56.9 64.2 75.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 80 20 0 100 47.0 45.9 48.2 58.5 20.4 23.7 54.5 67.7 83.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 71 29 0 100 38.4 40.3 40.2 61.9 25.7 27.9 54.5 65.7 73.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 77 23 0 100 70.5 64.5 48.8 60.7 21.5 25.0 73.9 101.6 111.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 78 22 0 100 45.1 41.9 40.8 55.0 18.1 22.0 52.6 67.2 86.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 79 21 0 100 54.4 48.7 48.8 57.8 19.5 23.3 55.0 87.4 94.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 80 20 0 100 41.7 35.7 39.4 56.4 21.1 23.7 51.7 69.6 84.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 77 23 0 100 39.0 34.4 40.2 57.4 20.2 23.8 39.6 58.5 70.0 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 84 16 0 100 34.8 30.4 38.0 51.2 16.1 20.2 46.7 58.3 74.9 30 Leskovac 26200G08 75 25 0 100 63.5 51.6 48.7 55.0 16.3 22.0 83.5 99.6 126.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 73 27 0 100 30.0 26.2 34.8 53.4 25.9 25.9 37.7 55.6 71.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 78 22 0 100 31.7 27.6 37.3 53.3 18.9 22.4 37.2 52.2 69.7 30 Nis 06700G01 67 33 0 100 43.5 37.0 40.1 63.5 25.2 29.3 51.3 66.6 89.8 29 Palic 37000G16 71 29 0 100 55.5 58.4 56.7 61.2 23.4 25.3 67.8 80.1 96.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 70 30 0 100 57.0 58.5 39.8 61.5 25.5 28.3 61.6 71.1 92.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 73 27 0 100 47.8 49.2 57.7 64.6 23.9 26.4 57.3 69.4 92.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 82 18 0 100 37.0 29.1 38.1 53.3 16.3 21.4 50.1 74.6 86.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 69 31 0 100 50.3 44.4 39.7 61.5 23.5 28.0 53.0 74.8 84.9 30 Sombor 26600G07 72 28 0 100 51.8 44.5 38.4 56.7 17.9 24.7 60.8 72.0 88.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 76 24 0 100 66.5 66.3 48.1 58.2 21.3 24.3 75.8 89.9 112.9 30 Valjevo 28500G11 79 21 0 100 46.5 44.8 42.0 53.4 18.3 21.4 55.6 68.3 89.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 85 15 0 100 36.7 35.4 37.3 56.0 21.3 22.9 40.9 57.7 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 75 25 0 100 46.4 36.7 43.0 55.1 18.5 22.5 59.3 77.8 99.7 30 Vrsac 39200G15 73 27 0 100 35.7 33.2 37.5 53.2 22.9 24.5 42.3 60.4 72.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 68 32 0 100 75.1 69.1 59.3 64.0 25.4 26.9 74.8 102.4 116.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 74 26 0 100 47.4 48.7 40.6 61.8 26.6 27.9 60.3 73.7 85.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------