***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 59 41 0 100 5.1 11.4 9.7 63.3 53.1 40.1 5.4 11.0 18.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 51 49 0 100 7.0 17.3 11.0 85.6 61.0 45.1 5.6 13.4 19.0 30 Becej 27400G00 55 45 0 100 6.0 13.1 9.9 66.5 54.3 41.1 7.1 11.6 19.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 75 25 100 10.8 6.9 9.6 68.3 54.2 41.1 4.1 5.6 15.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 76 24 100 14.8 10.5 10.0 73.7 55.8 43.7 2.5 10.1 14.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 60 40 0 100 4.8 9.7 10.9 64.3 46.8 38.2 4.4 11.5 18.9 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 4.0 11.9 11.1 85.4 57.6 44.7 5.5 8.8 16.7 30 Kikinda 37800G18 62 38 0 100 3.6 5.9 11.9 71.7 48.6 40.4 2.6 7.2 23.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 11.6 10.6 10.8 72.0 56.0 43.4 3.9 9.2 12.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 57 43 0 100 5.0 9.7 12.9 71.7 50.6 41.4 4.0 9.6 18.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 60 40 0 100 3.1 8.0 9.1 70.6 51.2 41.3 2.5 7.6 10.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 61 39 0 100 3.2 6.1 9.1 66.2 48.5 39.3 2.0 8.2 15.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 60 40 0 100 3.1 7.3 8.7 58.9 47.7 35.5 2.5 7.4 13.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 6.7 11.4 12.4 63.3 45.7 38.3 6.7 13.8 22.3 30 Loznica 29500G14 54 46 0 100 2.1 8.5 7.7 65.2 54.8 41.0 1.4 4.4 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 63 37 0 100 2.7 7.5 8.7 64.9 52.2 39.0 3.6 7.2 13.0 30 Nis 06700G01 60 40 0 100 3.6 15.9 11.3 89.1 59.4 43.8 3.0 8.3 21.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 3.1 6.3 15.2 73.5 49.7 42.5 1.6 6.6 14.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 4.7 12.5 10.5 79.5 58.7 43.4 3.6 9.5 18.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 54 46 0 100 6.5 12.7 15.4 78.8 50.9 43.4 5.8 11.9 15.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 53 47 0 100 4.8 11.9 9.7 66.5 52.6 41.6 1.1 10.0 22.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 57 43 0 100 4.0 12.5 11.8 87.3 59.6 43.5 4.0 8.9 14.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 53 47 0 100 7.7 13.2 9.7 68.1 52.2 40.3 9.0 12.7 17.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 76 24 100 21.7 14.5 12.5 69.1 48.7 41.8 3.1 17.4 23.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 4.9 10.6 10.7 67.8 53.4 40.1 4.8 9.2 16.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 54 46 0 100 4.9 12.9 7.8 64.0 53.4 39.9 4.5 10.8 18.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 57 43 0 100 5.8 12.8 10.9 67.7 53.7 40.3 5.6 12.3 20.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.8 7.0 8.6 63.4 53.5 40.4 1.8 6.4 10.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 57 43 0 100 7.0 16.0 15.6 76.0 51.6 42.9 5.9 13.0 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 52 48 0 100 5.7 13.3 10.8 80.3 59.2 44.4 6.4 9.0 16.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------