***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 79 21 100 18.9 16.7 12.8 70.5 50.4 42.4 2.7 16.4 21.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 75 25 100 24.7 22.3 13.5 79.6 53.1 44.0 7.4 20.1 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 53 47 0 100 11.3 23.7 13.4 74.2 50.7 43.1 8.3 21.6 35.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 51 49 0 100 10.9 18.0 11.8 64.4 46.3 40.3 11.1 21.4 37.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 78 22 100 20.9 14.9 11.3 65.0 47.8 41.2 5.8 18.0 25.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 61 39 0 100 4.9 8.1 13.4 66.5 43.3 37.8 3.1 10.8 15.7 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 77 23 100 15.9 10.9 13.1 73.8 51.5 42.1 6.1 10.6 22.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 11.3 16.4 12.9 70.6 47.6 42.6 10.8 17.0 22.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 55 45 0 100 10.2 20.2 11.0 59.5 45.3 38.2 10.9 21.3 28.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 11.8 20.3 13.3 67.0 46.3 40.8 12.8 23.1 33.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 55 45 0 100 6.5 12.8 11.2 71.0 50.2 43.6 8.0 12.8 21.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 56 44 0 100 3.5 6.4 10.7 65.3 46.5 41.0 3.6 6.6 19.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 55 45 0 100 4.7 9.1 10.1 55.8 42.1 35.5 5.0 10.2 17.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 77 23 100 26.5 22.1 16.1 71.3 48.5 41.8 12.1 22.3 28.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 56 44 0 100 5.5 12.5 9.9 62.6 49.5 40.3 2.5 12.5 19.2 30 Negotin 38800G20 54 46 0 100 3.3 5.4 10.5 62.4 47.4 39.8 3.5 5.9 10.8 30 Nis 06700G01 54 46 0 100 5.8 11.5 11.9 69.4 51.5 40.6 3.6 9.7 17.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 75 25 100 24.7 17.0 15.9 71.9 47.9 42.6 9.2 18.3 31.7 30 Pozega 16800G06 51 49 0 100 12.6 20.7 13.6 80.1 53.9 44.3 12.2 19.2 24.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 76 24 100 21.3 13.6 14.9 71.4 44.5 42.4 8.6 15.3 31.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 57 43 0 100 7.8 13.0 11.2 61.8 45.8 38.7 9.4 13.7 23.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 5.7 9.6 12.6 70.8 50.9 40.9 7.2 9.6 21.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 51 49 0 100 7.8 16.6 13.5 78.1 53.9 43.6 8.1 15.5 20.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 17.6 25.4 15.1 73.0 49.0 42.8 12.3 27.0 35.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 77 23 100 18.3 10.1 12.3 64.7 46.8 39.8 6.7 10.9 25.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 61 39 0 100 3.6 6.7 8.5 54.1 42.0 34.3 5.1 8.6 16.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 76 24 100 18.4 13.4 13.1 67.3 48.2 40.8 9.3 14.3 24.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 55 45 0 100 7.3 15.3 11.3 65.7 49.9 40.8 6.7 15.4 24.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 17.3 28.8 16.1 72.8 47.4 42.8 19.6 30.0 36.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 22.2 21.6 14.1 81.3 54.4 44.9 6.7 18.1 24.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------