***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 63 37 0 100 5.3 13.3 12.7 67.7 49.9 38.6 7.5 13.4 29.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 60 40 0 100 7.4 17.2 11.8 69.8 51.1 41.0 9.6 17.1 23.8 30 Becej 27400G00 59 41 0 100 8.4 14.5 12.4 66.8 46.6 38.4 5.9 16.6 29.4 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 5.4 9.9 12.7 62.4 46.0 38.3 5.1 10.8 24.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 57 43 0 100 4.5 9.2 13.1 67.9 46.4 40.1 4.8 10.1 23.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 63 37 0 100 8.1 12.6 15.2 68.8 43.1 37.2 10.5 15.4 21.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 58 42 0 100 6.4 12.2 11.7 69.5 49.9 40.2 9.2 12.3 20.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 61 39 0 100 11.1 19.6 14.8 74.3 47.8 40.5 11.3 20.1 34.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 57 43 0 100 7.0 14.2 14.0 70.4 47.9 41.7 7.6 14.4 21.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 58 42 0 100 8.9 15.7 15.0 71.6 47.4 40.7 4.4 18.1 24.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 65 35 0 100 4.6 9.7 13.5 66.8 42.9 36.7 6.1 11.8 20.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 63 37 0 100 4.8 10.0 13.0 69.4 43.5 38.4 3.5 13.0 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 63 37 0 100 4.0 7.6 13.5 69.4 44.1 37.7 7.0 9.7 19.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 10.5 18.4 15.4 67.8 49.6 40.7 11.4 18.5 26.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 59 41 0 100 4.6 9.5 12.5 63.5 48.2 39.0 3.0 10.6 15.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 66 34 0 100 3.3 6.3 12.5 63.4 41.9 35.3 4.5 8.7 12.1 30 Nis 06700G01 59 41 0 100 7.0 17.0 12.2 73.6 52.6 41.9 5.5 16.1 23.8 29 Palic 37000G16 54 46 0 100 9.0 14.4 17.0 75.0 49.2 42.7 9.0 15.0 21.8 30 Pozega 16800G06 58 42 0 100 6.8 15.8 11.9 68.4 50.9 40.8 6.9 15.5 19.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 55 45 0 100 7.3 14.4 16.8 78.9 48.1 42.5 6.2 14.5 25.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 6.1 14.3 13.0 68.2 50.8 40.2 8.5 13.4 22.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 56 44 0 100 9.0 17.8 12.3 72.8 52.3 43.8 9.7 16.4 24.3 30 Sombor 26600G07 60 40 0 100 6.9 14.4 11.7 64.2 48.6 39.3 7.7 14.6 20.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 52 48 0 100 11.2 17.1 15.1 70.4 49.0 41.5 11.2 18.9 24.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 5.4 11.4 15.0 70.4 46.9 40.6 4.4 12.5 24.5 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 62 38 0 100 4.1 8.7 13.5 69.8 44.9 38.5 2.3 10.9 19.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 63 37 0 100 7.4 14.6 14.4 69.9 47.9 39.4 6.7 19.4 29.5 30 Vrsac 39200G15 58 42 0 100 3.6 6.9 11.9 61.4 45.2 37.4 1.7 8.4 14.0 30 Zajecar 36700G16 51 49 0 100 11.0 21.6 19.2 82.8 52.5 45.3 9.3 19.3 25.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 58 42 0 100 9.2 17.9 11.9 68.4 48.7 39.5 13.4 18.3 22.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------