***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 90 10 0 100 4.4 3.3 4.2 21.1 16.7 14.3 6.5 14.2 20.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 84 16 0 100 5.1 4.1 4.1 24.4 21.9 16.1 7.7 13.8 18.8 30 Becej 27400G00 91 9 0 100 5.1 5.0 3.9 21.5 18.3 13.9 8.2 18.7 22.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 88 12 0 100 6.8 6.6 5.1 23.5 19.7 15.3 11.7 17.1 26.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 93 7 0 100 4.2 3.5 4.2 20.4 15.3 12.7 9.3 12.8 18.3 30 Cuprija 39700G22 76 24 0 100 7.6 7.5 8.7 37.9 22.7 23.3 10.5 15.3 20.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 83 17 0 100 2.0 1.4 4.3 24.9 19.8 16.6 2.7 7.3 14.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 80 20 0 100 12.7 12.5 9.3 36.6 19.9 20.3 19.5 24.6 35.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 92 8 0 100 5.5 4.0 5.0 24.0 15.2 14.6 10.3 17.9 22.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 87 13 0 100 5.7 4.4 7.7 29.6 15.8 16.4 8.7 13.9 22.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 87 13 0 100 3.0 1.6 5.6 26.0 20.3 16.9 6.1 16.1 20.8 30 Krusevac 38200G21 78 22 0 100 5.2 4.5 7.4 34.9 23.3 21.6 7.2 13.8 17.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 89 11 0 100 4.9 4.9 5.8 26.3 21.8 18.0 5.7 12.0 17.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 90 10 0 100 4.6 0.5 4.9 20.5 11.4 12.1 16.4 20.3 27.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 79 21 0 100 2.6 2.6 4.7 26.3 30.5 22.0 3.4 8.7 14.3 30 Negotin 38800G20 89 11 0 100 4.1 5.8 5.6 28.2 22.5 18.3 6.7 13.1 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 83 17 0 100 5.4 4.5 4.7 28.0 22.8 18.6 9.1 14.8 18.4 29 Palic 37000G16 83 17 0 100 10.9 9.1 8.5 31.1 14.3 16.6 13.2 18.9 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 87 13 0 100 2.4 2.5 3.7 21.9 20.6 14.5 4.7 17.3 20.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 83 17 0 100 7.3 7.6 10.7 38.6 21.6 21.2 8.0 12.4 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 92 8 0 100 3.6 2.6 4.3 21.5 16.1 14.0 7.2 15.1 20.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 90 10 0 100 3.0 3.0 3.1 18.7 17.6 13.7 6.7 10.9 20.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 90 10 0 100 4.1 2.9 3.5 19.4 16.3 12.6 8.2 15.5 20.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 85 15 0 100 5.9 2.6 5.5 24.1 14.0 14.8 12.5 22.6 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 90 10 0 100 3.6 1.7 4.0 17.7 14.1 12.3 9.9 17.5 22.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 73 27 0 100 3.4 3.6 7.5 39.0 28.8 25.7 4.6 6.8 18.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 90 10 0 100 4.0 2.8 4.5 20.8 14.8 13.5 7.0 14.2 21.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 85 15 0 100 3.6 4.7 5.7 27.5 25.0 18.6 6.6 13.5 17.6 30 Zajecar 36700G16 86 14 0 100 11.0 8.2 8.3 30.6 15.1 16.5 14.2 26.6 35.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 90 10 0 100 1.9 1.2 3.8 21.7 18.5 13.7 7.8 13.4 20.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------