***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 10 90 100 27.1 29.3 28.5 3.3 95.0 89.9 25.3 25.4 26.3 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 6 94 100 27.1 28.6 29.0 3.6 95.0 91.1 25.1 25.3 25.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 11 89 100 27.0 28.7 28.6 3.2 94.4 88.4 24.9 25.5 26.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 11 89 100 19.5 21.4 25.6 2.8 93.0 88.2 17.9 18.4 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 15 85 100 26.8 28.7 26.2 2.7 92.4 86.5 25.3 25.7 26.8 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 22 78 100 25.5 27.1 23.0 1.9 89.0 81.7 23.8 24.5 25.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 4 96 100 26.8 28.6 28.8 3.5 95.1 91.2 24.6 25.1 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 18 82 100 14.9 15.9 23.8 2.3 89.4 83.1 13.5 13.9 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 12 88 100 26.4 28.9 27.0 2.9 93.9 88.0 24.5 25.2 26.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 26.4 28.2 25.0 2.6 91.4 85.1 24.4 25.2 25.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 16 84 100 26.8 28.5 26.1 2.6 91.8 86.2 25.0 25.6 26.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 16 84 100 25.9 27.2 25.0 2.4 90.4 84.1 24.2 24.7 25.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 19 81 100 27.2 28.4 24.6 2.1 88.7 81.7 25.3 25.5 26.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 19 81 100 26.6 27.9 26.2 2.5 91.9 84.1 24.5 25.2 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 5 95 100 27.4 29.5 27.4 2.9 95.3 90.3 25.9 26.3 26.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 18 82 100 27.8 29.2 25.3 2.4 90.7 84.7 25.7 26.0 26.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 3 97 100 26.8 28.3 28.9 3.8 95.4 92.1 24.3 24.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 22 78 100 25.8 26.8 24.1 2.4 89.5 82.8 24.0 24.6 25.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 7 93 100 26.5 28.4 28.9 3.6 95.0 90.8 24.4 24.9 25.5 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 26 74 100 21.2 22.4 21.4 2.0 86.0 80.2 19.6 20.3 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 16 84 100 26.7 28.8 27.8 2.9 93.1 87.1 24.7 25.5 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 9 91 100 26.9 28.7 28.2 3.2 94.2 88.9 24.6 25.1 26.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 6 94 100 27.0 28.6 28.7 3.5 95.4 90.6 24.8 25.3 25.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 20 80 100 26.2 27.6 26.3 2.7 91.9 84.8 24.3 24.8 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 13 87 100 27.0 28.8 26.7 2.8 93.6 87.6 24.8 25.6 26.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 18 82 100 26.6 27.6 24.3 2.4 90.5 84.7 24.8 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 10 90 100 26.6 28.4 27.6 3.1 94.6 89.1 24.5 25.4 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 27.3 29.4 26.1 2.7 93.1 88.0 25.9 26.5 27.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 21.1 22.1 23.0 2.2 87.9 81.5 19.2 20.1 20.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 7 93 100 26.6 28.6 28.8 3.4 94.8 90.2 24.9 25.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------