***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 27 73 100 29.3 30.8 29.0 2.7 84.6 72.6 26.0 27.6 28.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 28 72 100 28.8 29.8 29.0 2.8 83.7 71.3 24.6 26.9 28.3 30 Becej 27400G00 0 26 74 100 28.8 30.6 29.2 2.7 83.5 71.5 24.5 27.2 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 25 75 100 22.2 23.1 26.9 2.5 82.7 72.0 18.3 20.5 21.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 25 75 100 29.0 29.2 26.9 2.3 76.7 69.2 25.4 27.8 28.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 27.9 28.2 24.2 1.8 73.4 67.4 24.4 26.2 27.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 28 72 100 28.8 30.1 28.9 2.8 83.5 71.2 24.5 26.7 28.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 23 77 100 17.3 17.3 24.8 1.9 73.9 66.2 13.7 16.0 17.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 23 77 100 28.6 28.9 27.3 2.4 77.9 69.2 24.7 27.5 28.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 21 79 100 28.5 28.5 25.7 2.1 75.3 67.5 24.7 26.9 28.1 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 24 76 100 28.5 28.8 26.6 2.3 77.7 69.3 25.2 27.5 28.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 25 75 100 28.0 28.4 26.1 2.1 76.8 67.7 24.7 26.3 27.5 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 29 71 100 29.0 29.1 25.2 1.8 73.2 66.6 25.4 27.3 28.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 29 71 100 29.1 28.7 26.3 1.8 73.9 65.6 24.1 26.9 28.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 25 75 100 29.9 32.6 28.2 2.8 88.2 75.7 26.7 28.0 28.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 28 72 100 29.2 29.7 26.2 2.2 77.6 69.1 25.9 27.9 29.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 28.2 29.6 28.7 2.7 81.9 70.2 23.7 26.6 27.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 26 74 100 27.6 28.0 24.8 1.8 72.3 65.4 23.9 26.3 27.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 28.2 30.1 29.1 2.8 83.7 71.4 23.9 26.5 27.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 23.8 23.4 22.0 1.4 69.3 62.7 19.8 22.1 22.8 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.7 28.2 2.4 79.2 69.3 24.6 27.5 28.3 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 30 70 100 28.5 30.0 28.3 2.4 80.7 68.7 24.0 26.8 28.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 27 73 100 28.6 29.8 28.9 2.7 82.3 71.2 23.9 26.9 27.9 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 23 77 100 28.3 28.6 26.6 2.1 76.2 67.3 23.7 26.5 27.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 26 74 100 29.2 30.5 27.0 2.4 80.5 70.7 24.8 27.4 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 28.9 30.1 25.9 2.5 81.0 72.0 24.8 27.1 27.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 27 73 100 28.4 29.7 28.0 2.6 82.7 71.7 24.0 26.8 28.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 23 77 100 30.0 30.9 27.3 2.6 83.3 72.6 26.7 28.5 29.4 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 28 72 100 23.1 23.2 23.6 1.5 69.4 63.3 18.6 21.6 23.0 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 27 73 100 28.7 29.9 29.0 2.8 83.5 71.6 24.4 26.9 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------