***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 37 63 100 28.3 29.5 28.4 2.5 80.6 71.0 24.7 26.5 28.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 33 67 100 27.9 29.4 28.6 2.7 83.4 71.7 24.2 25.6 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 34 66 100 27.6 28.9 28.6 2.5 80.9 70.5 24.6 25.5 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 20.8 22.0 26.2 2.4 82.8 71.4 17.7 19.2 20.7 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 38 62 100 28.0 29.2 26.4 2.2 79.5 69.5 25.0 26.0 27.5 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 35 65 100 26.7 26.8 23.4 1.5 71.2 65.8 24.1 25.6 26.3 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 36 64 100 27.6 29.0 28.5 2.5 80.7 70.4 24.1 25.6 27.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 36 64 100 16.3 16.7 24.2 1.8 72.6 67.6 13.1 14.7 16.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 37 63 100 27.4 29.0 26.8 2.3 81.1 69.9 24.4 25.3 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 27.3 28.2 25.2 2.1 75.6 68.5 24.7 25.3 26.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.9 26.0 2.1 78.8 69.6 25.0 25.9 27.2 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 34 66 100 26.8 27.0 25.4 1.9 75.0 68.3 24.3 25.4 26.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 35 65 100 28.1 27.6 24.3 1.5 70.0 65.7 25.4 26.5 27.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 26.9 28.1 25.9 1.8 72.4 65.6 23.7 24.7 26.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 28.9 29.7 27.3 2.5 86.0 73.8 25.8 27.1 28.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 32 68 100 28.9 29.6 25.4 1.9 76.2 68.6 25.8 27.1 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 35 65 100 27.2 28.7 28.4 2.6 84.0 70.6 23.7 24.8 26.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 26.5 26.8 24.4 1.8 71.2 66.2 23.7 25.1 26.2 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 31 69 100 27.0 28.8 28.7 2.7 83.4 71.6 23.8 24.7 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 40 60 100 22.5 21.7 21.5 1.4 67.3 64.1 19.4 21.2 21.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 38 62 100 27.7 29.1 27.6 2.2 79.6 69.0 24.7 25.7 27.0 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 39 61 100 27.2 29.0 27.9 2.4 81.3 69.1 23.9 25.3 27.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 31 69 100 27.6 29.0 28.4 2.6 81.9 70.8 24.1 25.4 27.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 38 62 100 26.8 28.0 26.1 2.0 75.1 67.1 24.0 24.6 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 39 61 100 27.7 28.7 26.4 2.2 79.2 69.3 25.1 26.2 27.9 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 31 69 100 27.6 28.2 24.9 2.2 78.2 71.3 25.1 26.3 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 27.2 28.3 27.4 2.3 79.5 69.9 24.1 25.6 27.4 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 30 70 100 29.3 30.3 26.5 2.4 83.2 72.0 25.8 27.1 27.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 79 21 100 20.7 21.7 23.2 1.5 67.6 64.5 19.4 19.9 21.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 34 66 100 27.4 29.0 28.5 2.6 81.5 71.0 24.0 25.1 27.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------