***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 05.06.2017.-11.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 20 80 100 28.5 30.4 28.7 3.4 86.9 79.9 25.3 25.7 27.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 20 80 100 28.1 29.9 29.3 3.8 87.5 81.5 25.1 25.6 27.9 30 Becej 27400G00 0 21 79 100 28.2 29.8 28.8 3.3 85.6 78.7 25.1 25.8 27.6 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 28 72 100 20.7 21.8 25.3 2.8 83.6 76.4 17.2 19.0 21.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.8 26.2 2.8 83.4 76.1 25.3 26.9 28.0 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 36 64 100 26.4 27.3 23.0 2.1 77.8 71.1 23.5 24.8 26.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 20 80 100 27.9 29.7 29.0 3.6 87.8 81.2 24.4 25.2 27.0 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 32 68 100 16.0 16.8 23.7 2.4 78.0 73.2 13.1 14.2 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 25 75 100 27.9 29.6 27.2 3.1 84.8 77.8 25.0 26.4 27.2 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 28 72 100 27.5 28.8 25.0 2.7 81.1 74.8 24.6 26.0 27.4 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 30 70 100 28.0 29.0 26.2 2.8 82.7 75.7 25.3 26.6 27.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 33 67 100 26.8 27.5 24.9 2.5 79.2 74.1 23.8 25.3 26.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 34 66 100 28.2 28.9 24.8 2.3 78.7 72.4 25.2 26.9 27.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 32 68 100 27.9 29.2 26.2 2.5 79.4 72.9 25.0 25.6 27.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 27 73 100 28.8 30.2 27.3 2.8 85.1 77.3 25.4 27.2 27.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 31 69 100 28.5 29.3 25.4 2.6 81.2 74.4 26.0 27.2 28.1 30 Nis 06700G01 0 20 80 100 27.4 29.8 29.1 3.9 88.2 81.9 24.3 25.3 26.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 31 69 100 27.2 28.1 24.0 2.5 78.1 72.9 24.2 25.1 26.6 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 20 80 100 27.7 29.2 29.2 3.8 87.2 81.4 24.6 25.2 27.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 32 68 100 22.6 22.9 21.4 2.1 74.3 70.9 19.6 20.5 21.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 26 74 100 28.2 30.0 28.0 3.0 83.9 76.9 24.9 26.5 27.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 22 78 100 27.9 29.5 28.4 3.3 85.8 79.3 24.9 25.9 27.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 20 80 100 28.2 29.9 29.0 3.8 87.2 81.4 25.1 25.6 27.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 27.2 28.6 26.4 2.7 81.5 74.7 24.8 25.3 27.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 27 73 100 28.2 29.7 26.8 2.9 84.6 76.8 24.9 26.3 27.2 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 29 71 100 27.5 28.9 24.1 2.6 81.9 75.0 24.6 26.0 27.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 23 77 100 28.0 29.3 27.8 3.2 86.8 78.6 24.8 26.0 26.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 29 71 100 28.5 29.3 25.9 2.7 82.8 75.9 25.9 27.0 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 31 69 100 22.3 23.2 23.0 2.2 75.9 71.4 19.1 20.1 21.5 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 20 80 100 28.1 29.5 29.1 3.6 86.9 80.7 24.8 25.9 27.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------