***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 4 96 100 26.8 28.2 28.1 4.4 90.6 90.0 22.6 24.3 26.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 2 98 100 27.4 29.0 29.1 5.2 93.7 92.7 23.1 24.6 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 4 96 100 27.3 28.2 28.0 4.2 87.9 86.7 22.7 24.7 26.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 8 92 100 19.3 19.8 24.1 3.5 90.1 86.8 15.8 17.5 18.4 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 5 95 100 27.2 28.2 25.3 3.5 85.9 84.8 23.4 24.9 26.6 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 23 77 100 24.7 25.3 21.6 2.3 78.7 76.9 22.0 23.2 24.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 2 98 100 27.3 28.4 28.9 5.1 94.6 92.9 22.6 24.2 25.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 11 89 100 14.9 15.3 22.4 3.0 79.8 79.4 10.7 12.9 14.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 2 98 100 26.8 27.8 26.6 4.0 88.5 87.6 22.5 23.7 25.5 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 7 93 100 26.3 26.7 24.0 3.5 83.5 82.6 22.6 23.9 25.5 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 6 94 100 26.7 27.2 25.4 3.4 85.5 83.6 22.7 24.7 25.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 11 89 100 25.3 25.7 23.5 3.0 80.4 80.2 22.1 23.8 24.8 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 12 88 100 26.6 26.9 24.0 2.6 80.2 77.5 23.5 24.6 25.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 2 98 100 26.7 27.9 26.3 4.0 84.5 84.1 23.3 24.1 26.0 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 7 93 100 27.0 27.7 26.9 3.6 92.1 89.4 23.5 25.6 26.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 10 90 100 27.4 27.9 24.3 2.9 83.3 81.0 23.5 25.5 26.2 30 Nis 06700G01 0 0 100 100 26.9 29.0 29.4 5.9 96.9 95.7 22.3 23.9 26.1 29 Palic 37000G16 0 5 95 100 26.1 26.4 23.1 3.4 80.7 80.5 22.3 23.4 24.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 2 98 100 27.0 28.4 28.8 5.0 92.6 91.7 22.6 24.0 25.8 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 12 88 100 21.4 21.7 20.5 3.0 76.7 77.8 17.1 18.9 20.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 3 97 100 27.0 28.0 27.5 3.9 86.8 86.0 22.8 24.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 1 99 100 27.5 29.0 28.3 4.9 92.5 91.4 22.9 24.1 26.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 2 98 100 27.2 28.8 28.7 5.1 92.5 91.6 23.0 24.4 26.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 2 98 100 26.6 26.9 26.0 3.8 84.3 83.4 22.4 23.6 25.6 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 4 96 100 27.1 28.3 26.4 3.9 89.1 87.1 22.8 24.2 26.4 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 24 76 100 25.9 26.4 22.1 2.4 76.7 75.9 22.8 24.4 25.5 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 4 96 100 26.9 27.8 27.4 4.2 90.8 89.3 23.1 23.9 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 10 90 100 26.6 27.9 24.9 3.3 89.0 85.9 23.6 25.9 26.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 6 94 100 21.4 21.6 22.3 3.4 80.6 80.1 17.6 18.2 19.9 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 2 98 100 27.4 28.6 28.7 4.8 92.1 90.8 23.0 24.3 26.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------