***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 19.06.2017.-25.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 15.4 15.9 17.6 1.6 78.7 69.8 14.2 14.6 15.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 32 68 100 15.4 15.9 17.6 1.6 78.8 69.8 13.8 14.5 15.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 29 71 100 17.4 17.9 17.9 1.6 79.4 70.7 15.1 16.3 17.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 36 64 100 12.5 13.2 15.1 1.4 77.5 69.2 9.9 11.3 12.9 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 35 65 100 13.9 14.5 14.9 1.3 76.1 67.5 12.1 12.9 13.4 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 38 62 100 12.9 12.7 12.9 1.1 73.0 66.1 11.3 12.1 12.4 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.5 16.0 17.7 1.6 77.9 70.2 13.9 14.4 15.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 34 66 100 8.1 8.3 12.5 1.1 73.8 66.1 6.3 7.5 8.1 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 15.5 16.1 15.2 1.3 77.2 68.5 13.0 14.4 15.3 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.5 13.5 1.1 74.4 66.5 12.8 14.2 15.0 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 34 66 100 15.2 15.4 14.3 1.2 76.1 67.6 13.2 14.3 14.6 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 36 64 100 12.7 13.0 13.3 1.1 74.9 67.0 11.3 11.8 12.6 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 43 57 100 14.1 14.3 12.9 1.0 72.0 65.0 12.7 13.5 14.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 33 67 100 15.9 15.8 15.0 1.0 72.4 63.8 13.9 14.5 15.4 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 33 67 100 16.3 17.2 16.6 1.6 81.1 71.8 14.6 15.0 16.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 38 62 100 15.5 15.8 13.8 1.2 75.6 67.0 13.2 14.5 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 30 70 100 16.2 16.7 17.4 1.5 77.7 69.1 14.2 14.9 15.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 36 64 100 13.9 14.2 12.6 0.9 74.0 64.7 11.6 12.9 13.9 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 30 70 100 15.6 16.3 17.6 1.6 79.9 70.1 13.4 14.3 15.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 35 65 100 9.3 9.7 10.3 0.9 72.4 64.3 7.7 8.4 9.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 34 66 100 15.0 15.3 16.6 1.4 76.9 69.0 12.9 14.3 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 15.2 15.6 17.1 1.4 76.5 68.2 13.2 14.1 14.7 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 26 74 100 15.0 15.8 17.4 1.6 81.1 70.2 12.6 13.7 14.4 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 15.5 15.9 14.8 1.1 76.8 66.0 13.6 14.4 15.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 14.8 14.8 15.9 1.3 75.6 67.6 12.8 14.0 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 35 65 100 13.7 13.9 12.8 1.2 75.5 68.4 12.1 13.2 13.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 35 65 100 14.6 15.2 16.8 1.5 78.2 68.9 12.8 13.6 14.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 34 66 100 14.3 14.9 15.5 1.5 79.3 70.2 12.3 13.3 14.1 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 35 65 100 12.1 12.6 11.9 0.9 73.5 64.3 10.1 10.8 12.3 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 32 68 100 15.8 16.3 17.7 1.6 78.3 69.9 13.7 14.7 15.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------