***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 12.06.2017.-18.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 34 66 100 15.3 15.7 17.0 1.0 71.8 63.7 14.0 14.7 15.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 30 70 100 15.5 16.1 17.2 1.3 78.4 66.6 13.0 14.0 15.1 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 16.8 17.1 17.2 1.1 74.0 64.5 14.9 15.7 16.8 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 33 67 100 12.2 12.2 14.2 0.7 63.4 60.4 9.3 10.7 12.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 31 69 100 13.9 13.6 14.1 0.7 64.7 60.3 12.1 13.1 13.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 53 47 0 100 10.9 12.9 12.0 0.6 62.8 59.0 11.2 11.9 13.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 31 69 100 15.5 16.1 17.3 1.4 78.1 67.0 13.2 14.3 15.1 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 7.5 7.8 11.7 0.6 64.6 59.5 5.1 6.2 7.8 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 31 69 100 15.1 14.9 14.4 0.8 68.0 61.1 13.1 14.1 14.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 31 69 100 14.8 14.9 12.7 0.6 66.0 59.7 12.8 13.9 14.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 33 67 100 14.7 14.7 13.5 0.7 66.1 60.6 13.0 13.8 14.7 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 11.1 12.3 12.5 0.6 63.4 59.4 10.8 11.9 12.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 52 48 0 100 12.6 13.8 12.0 0.4 57.7 56.6 12.6 13.5 14.3 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 30 70 100 15.4 15.1 14.3 0.7 66.7 60.2 13.4 14.7 15.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 51 49 0 100 14.2 16.2 15.5 0.7 66.3 61.2 14.3 14.9 16.1 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.9 12.9 0.6 61.7 58.9 13.1 13.7 15.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 29 71 100 15.8 16.3 17.1 1.4 77.4 67.2 13.4 14.6 15.2 29 Palic 37000G16 0 35 65 100 13.1 13.2 11.8 0.5 60.5 58.3 11.8 12.3 13.3 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 29 71 100 15.3 15.8 17.1 1.3 78.4 66.1 13.3 14.1 14.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 7.6 8.7 9.6 0.4 60.4 58.1 7.6 8.2 8.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 31 69 100 15.1 15.0 15.9 0.8 67.3 61.2 13.2 13.9 14.9 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 28 72 100 14.9 15.3 16.7 1.2 76.2 65.9 12.8 13.4 14.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 28 72 100 14.8 15.1 16.8 1.2 76.4 65.3 12.7 13.7 14.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 31 69 100 14.9 14.8 14.1 0.6 64.4 60.1 13.2 14.2 14.8 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.2 14.5 15.2 0.7 62.7 59.2 13.0 13.9 14.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 51 49 0 100 11.8 13.6 11.9 0.6 61.9 59.3 11.9 12.4 13.8 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 37 63 100 14.9 14.6 16.2 0.9 68.7 62.2 12.6 13.5 14.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 75 25 100 13.5 14.1 14.5 0.7 64.8 61.0 12.1 13.1 14.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 34 66 100 11.6 10.8 11.1 0.5 59.5 58.3 9.0 10.3 11.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 31 69 100 15.7 16.3 17.3 1.3 78.0 66.0 13.2 14.3 15.5 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------