***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mnt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mnt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmn2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmnt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmnt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 25.05.2017. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 29.05.2017.-04.06.2017. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mnt1 mnt2 eavg anmn2t pctmnt avpmnt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 31 69 100 13.4 13.5 15.4 1.5 72.8 71.2 12.1 12.7 13.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 12 88 100 13.9 14.1 15.7 2.1 77.6 77.3 11.6 12.7 13.5 30 Becej 27400G00 0 35 65 100 15.5 15.0 15.4 1.4 70.4 69.8 13.0 14.4 15.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 27 73 100 10.4 10.2 13.1 1.7 75.2 74.6 8.3 9.3 10.0 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 43 57 100 11.7 11.8 13.1 1.2 68.2 67.5 10.3 11.3 11.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 91 9 100 10.3 10.3 9.8 0.5 56.6 57.2 10.0 10.2 10.5 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 16 84 100 13.9 14.1 15.7 2.1 79.2 77.9 12.1 13.1 13.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 95 5 100 4.9 5.3 9.6 0.4 58.7 58.0 4.1 4.9 5.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 90 10 100 12.2 12.6 13.0 0.9 64.2 64.9 11.5 12.1 12.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 93 7 100 12.2 12.6 10.9 0.6 61.1 60.3 11.4 12.1 12.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 93 7 100 11.8 11.9 11.9 0.5 58.6 57.7 10.9 11.8 12.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 95 5 100 10.4 10.7 10.7 0.5 58.8 58.7 9.7 10.4 10.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 92 8 100 11.4 11.3 10.4 0.0 50.0 49.5 10.9 11.3 11.7 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 92 8 100 13.0 13.4 12.6 0.8 62.0 61.9 11.8 12.9 13.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 88 12 100 13.3 13.4 13.8 0.8 63.1 63.5 12.7 13.2 13.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 91 9 100 12.2 12.1 11.4 0.4 55.8 56.7 11.4 12.1 12.6 30 Nis 06700G01 0 7 93 100 14.1 14.3 15.9 2.5 82.8 82.1 12.6 13.0 13.8 29 Palic 37000G16 0 92 8 100 10.9 11.3 10.5 0.9 63.0 63.7 9.8 10.8 11.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 13.7 13.7 15.6 2.0 76.9 76.2 11.9 13.0 13.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 93 7 100 6.9 7.2 8.4 0.7 60.5 60.9 5.9 6.8 7.3 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 89 11 100 12.4 12.4 14.3 1.0 65.0 65.4 11.5 12.3 12.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 13.1 13.1 15.4 1.9 76.0 75.1 11.6 12.5 12.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 15 85 100 13.5 13.7 15.4 1.9 76.2 75.8 11.2 12.4 13.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 89 11 100 12.3 12.9 12.8 1.0 64.0 64.7 11.3 12.1 13.0 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 40 60 100 13.2 13.5 14.2 1.3 69.0 68.2 11.6 12.2 12.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 96 4 100 10.9 10.9 9.8 0.2 56.1 55.1 10.4 10.9 11.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 13.2 13.6 14.9 1.6 72.8 71.6 11.3 12.3 13.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 45 55 100 11.7 11.7 13.0 1.1 66.0 66.3 10.7 11.4 11.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 92 8 100 9.0 10.0 9.6 0.8 61.9 62.0 8.1 8.9 10.4 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 17 83 100 13.8 13.9 15.8 1.9 75.9 75.7 12.2 12.7 13.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------