***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 56 44 0 100 57.5 69.8 55.9 82.5 42.8 40.0 56.4 75.5 89.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 53 47 0 100 59.2 67.8 51.0 86.4 44.4 43.2 59.2 71.7 99.9 30 Becej 27400G00 52 48 0 100 67.6 89.0 54.7 84.7 42.9 41.8 80.0 93.3 108.1 30 Beograd 28900G14 65 35 0 100 58.3 72.4 54.9 76.8 37.4 36.5 70.7 82.3 88.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 59 41 0 100 47.7 61.7 54.0 80.0 41.1 38.5 56.1 65.6 75.2 30 Cuprija 39700G22 65 35 0 100 54.6 63.0 65.7 79.8 36.6 36.3 59.8 67.2 83.1 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 52 48 0 100 48.9 67.1 51.3 85.9 45.0 42.4 56.6 69.8 75.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 85.5 99.8 72.0 92.4 47.4 44.8 80.6 103.0 115.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 53 47 0 100 54.3 66.5 59.9 85.0 45.3 42.0 50.5 69.6 86.7 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 66.8 79.6 71.8 88.5 44.4 42.9 64.7 86.1 94.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 58 42 0 100 51.3 62.7 56.6 84.3 43.1 40.7 51.7 70.8 80.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 57 43 0 100 44.9 55.9 59.9 89.1 45.8 43.1 45.9 58.2 73.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 68 32 0 100 45.3 51.9 57.7 80.5 38.5 37.8 47.5 61.6 81.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 57 43 0 100 80.7 90.7 72.8 86.8 41.3 40.4 84.5 99.6 127.2 30 Loznica 29500G14 65 35 0 100 33.2 45.8 46.0 70.5 38.3 34.9 39.0 52.6 73.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 61 39 0 100 37.9 44.8 53.5 78.5 38.1 37.0 37.1 55.0 80.5 30 Nis 06700G01 56 44 0 100 49.1 69.3 53.1 91.9 50.6 46.1 60.7 69.3 90.1 29 Palic 37000G16 57 43 0 100 67.9 81.2 82.0 92.6 48.4 45.5 69.1 82.2 92.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 75 25 100 81.5 65.8 51.9 86.2 44.9 43.1 63.6 71.1 96.3 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 75 25 100 73.9 73.1 85.9 100.8 55.9 50.2 59.8 66.9 87.6 30 Sjenica 27900G10 56 44 0 100 49.5 68.4 56.2 83.8 45.1 41.4 52.6 74.3 86.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 59.5 76.1 54.4 90.8 49.7 46.1 63.3 76.1 86.0 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 75 25 100 80.8 73.1 55.2 87.5 48.0 43.4 61.4 74.4 83.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 53 47 0 100 73.2 87.4 68.1 88.1 46.0 43.1 72.6 89.4 112.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 61 39 0 100 52.4 57.7 58.3 77.6 39.9 36.9 53.4 71.1 89.3 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 60 40 0 100 45.6 53.3 54.6 83.8 42.1 40.3 42.9 62.8 74.3 30 Vranje 18300G04 60 40 0 100 52.8 67.5 60.0 81.1 41.4 38.7 59.3 77.8 100.0 30 Vrsac 39200G15 63 37 0 100 41.3 46.2 52.4 75.4 37.3 36.2 41.2 60.5 71.8 30 Zajecar 36700G16 55 45 0 100 81.6 103.1 85.3 95.6 51.1 46.9 85.0 101.4 119.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 82.3 70.1 50.9 82.9 42.5 41.3 64.3 74.0 90.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------