***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 54 46 0 100 7.5 17.0 12.4 76.6 54.4 43.4 4.2 15.3 20.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 77 23 100 20.6 18.2 12.2 88.3 56.6 46.7 2.9 17.3 21.2 30 Becej 27400G00 0 76 24 100 18.2 19.9 12.9 83.7 57.1 45.7 7.7 13.2 25.5 30 Beograd 28900G14 53 47 0 100 3.0 6.2 10.3 63.3 50.4 40.5 2.7 6.1 20.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 52 48 0 100 4.7 10.1 10.7 69.8 53.2 41.5 1.5 9.4 18.1 30 Cuprija 39700G22 64 36 0 100 3.6 8.9 12.5 64.6 47.4 36.8 3.4 9.6 20.8 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 5.5 16.4 12.4 89.6 55.3 44.8 1.7 12.3 22.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 76 24 100 17.2 10.2 15.1 84.9 53.7 45.0 2.9 7.6 25.0 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 77 23 100 12.6 10.6 11.9 72.7 52.0 42.8 5.0 10.6 17.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 76 24 100 15.3 9.9 15.1 78.4 51.9 44.1 4.4 9.1 16.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 76 24 100 14.6 10.2 11.2 75.5 53.4 43.2 2.1 9.3 16.0 30 Krusevac 38200G21 52 48 0 100 3.7 10.3 11.7 78.3 52.1 42.4 1.1 7.8 15.9 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 3.3 7.2 11.4 70.4 50.6 40.5 1.7 7.1 17.6 30 Leskovac 26200G08 52 48 0 100 9.2 20.3 17.5 86.2 55.4 45.3 7.3 18.3 22.8 30 Loznica 29500G14 57 43 0 100 1.6 4.4 8.9 61.0 52.4 39.8 1.0 3.7 9.9 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 3.6 7.9 10.6 67.7 51.4 39.8 2.0 7.9 13.1 30 Nis 06700G01 55 45 0 100 6.9 18.3 12.5 90.2 56.7 44.1 4.9 14.8 23.0 29 Palic 37000G16 51 49 0 100 5.3 13.0 18.0 83.1 53.4 46.0 1.6 10.6 16.0 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 76 24 100 15.1 17.7 12.4 86.8 58.6 47.4 3.8 11.1 20.2 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 53 47 0 100 6.0 13.6 18.6 93.6 55.1 47.6 5.2 12.1 16.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 77 23 100 15.3 14.6 11.4 72.7 51.6 43.9 7.4 12.6 22.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 53 47 0 100 5.7 12.8 12.6 83.0 56.3 44.0 6.3 11.8 14.6 30 Sombor 26600G07 56 44 0 100 7.2 16.8 13.7 91.4 64.6 49.0 8.1 13.4 17.5 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 75 25 100 24.1 21.6 15.8 86.1 55.1 46.3 5.4 19.8 24.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 75 25 100 14.8 10.4 11.6 66.0 49.3 40.9 6.6 10.8 21.7 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 64 36 0 100 3.6 9.5 9.2 70.2 48.3 37.5 2.9 10.1 20.2 30 Vranje 18300G04 52 48 0 100 7.7 13.7 12.8 72.2 50.9 41.5 6.1 13.5 22.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 56 44 0 100 2.6 5.6 9.9 61.2 49.4 38.9 1.9 5.9 13.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 52 48 0 100 7.9 16.8 18.8 88.4 55.5 47.3 7.1 14.1 21.2 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 77 23 100 14.0 11.5 12.5 86.9 57.1 46.9 4.6 9.2 17.0 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------