***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 11.06.2018.-17.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 62 38 0 100 7.9 18.8 12.8 76.3 50.0 41.8 5.1 18.8 20.6 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 8.9 22.3 12.6 84.0 54.1 46.0 6.8 16.5 29.0 30 Becej 27400G00 58 42 0 100 9.6 30.8 13.8 84.8 54.1 43.7 7.6 20.5 36.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 57 43 0 100 11.1 23.1 13.9 72.9 49.5 41.0 9.8 23.4 32.1 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 58 42 0 100 7.9 15.7 12.9 73.7 49.1 41.0 6.2 16.1 25.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 5.8 10.8 16.9 77.5 46.6 39.9 6.3 11.1 19.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 76 24 100 15.7 12.3 12.3 81.3 54.5 45.5 6.5 11.7 21.2 30 Kikinda 37800G18 53 47 0 100 11.6 16.9 15.3 78.8 48.6 43.3 10.9 17.0 21.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 59 41 0 100 7.8 12.9 13.2 72.0 45.2 39.7 10.5 15.3 25.4 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 55 45 0 100 12.9 20.5 15.5 75.9 46.9 41.7 10.0 23.0 33.7 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 56 44 0 100 7.7 12.4 12.1 72.2 48.4 40.6 9.0 13.0 19.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 55 45 0 100 5.3 7.7 13.1 75.0 48.0 41.7 4.7 8.8 16.1 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 57 43 0 100 5.6 11.0 14.5 76.3 46.9 42.1 7.9 11.4 17.0 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 75 25 100 27.2 22.0 15.8 74.9 48.1 42.0 12.0 22.1 29.9 30 Loznica 29500G14 53 47 0 100 3.9 9.9 11.9 68.7 52.1 41.1 2.7 8.3 19.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 56 44 0 100 5.1 9.6 12.9 71.6 48.9 40.0 3.4 9.6 13.6 30 Nis 06700G01 51 49 0 100 5.4 16.2 13.7 93.8 58.1 48.2 4.8 9.0 22.0 29 Palic 37000G16 56 44 0 100 8.5 14.1 17.5 79.5 49.0 42.6 6.3 15.3 31.1 30 Pozega 16800G06 55 45 0 100 11.1 21.2 12.9 85.1 54.4 45.4 12.6 20.7 23.9 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 51 49 0 100 9.3 17.7 18.3 86.7 49.3 46.1 5.9 17.9 35.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 59 41 0 100 7.2 13.1 13.5 80.1 52.3 43.1 8.2 12.4 20.5 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 9.8 19.9 14.3 94.7 59.2 49.7 4.6 17.0 21.2 30 Sombor 26600G07 58 42 0 100 7.1 17.1 12.5 79.5 52.5 42.9 4.6 16.5 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 15.1 25.1 15.0 77.5 49.8 42.1 11.5 25.3 33.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 55 45 0 100 6.9 12.9 15.1 80.1 52.2 42.4 6.8 12.1 16.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 52 48 0 100 4.4 8.7 13.2 80.6 50.3 43.2 5.1 8.7 11.7 30 Vranje 18300G04 56 44 0 100 8.2 17.1 14.6 78.9 50.9 42.9 8.0 16.8 25.8 30 Vrsac 39200G15 54 46 0 100 7.4 15.1 13.3 69.7 50.2 40.6 6.6 14.9 24.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 54 46 0 100 15.0 26.6 18.1 82.5 49.8 44.0 12.5 26.7 36.1 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 53 47 0 100 9.3 18.8 12.5 80.2 51.9 44.5 6.2 18.1 25.7 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------