***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 77 23 100 23.7 30.2 20.7 113.9 67.8 55.4 8.9 20.8 30.1 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 81 19 100 23.8 26.3 19.0 120.7 69.2 58.8 13.9 22.2 26.0 30 Becej 27400G00 0 82 18 100 21.8 29.3 19.3 111.5 65.7 56.7 8.4 17.4 29.7 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 82 18 100 20.3 36.3 22.2 124.8 70.6 62.4 8.7 15.4 27.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 80 20 100 18.0 23.2 20.6 116.1 68.3 59.1 8.1 13.7 22.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 79 21 100 17.0 18.1 25.5 117.1 65.8 58.0 10.1 14.7 18.2 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 79 21 100 16.1 26.6 18.8 119.2 70.2 57.7 9.0 12.8 25.9 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 33 67 100 37.7 40.9 28.1 142.7 72.8 66.3 15.7 24.3 30.4 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 79 21 100 20.6 24.0 22.5 120.7 69.8 59.6 10.9 17.7 23.8 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 38 62 100 25.4 24.2 27.5 136.0 72.6 64.2 6.7 11.8 23.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 81 19 100 19.9 29.4 23.6 129.1 71.4 62.1 7.1 16.6 22.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 38 62 100 24.0 16.3 24.3 135.3 70.6 64.3 5.6 10.3 14.7 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 42 58 100 21.3 22.9 23.8 124.3 71.0 62.2 4.6 9.8 18.2 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 24.2 31.8 26.1 120.1 68.2 60.3 13.4 18.9 31.7 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 79 21 100 14.3 18.1 19.1 114.4 70.3 57.3 2.5 11.4 16.5 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 79 21 100 11.5 14.4 21.7 117.8 66.0 58.4 4.9 6.4 14.3 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 21.8 27.8 18.2 118.1 68.0 57.8 10.1 17.8 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 40 60 100 22.5 23.8 30.4 135.6 71.4 63.4 10.9 18.0 21.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 82 18 100 20.8 26.6 19.2 120.6 69.5 59.6 12.6 18.8 24.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 36 64 100 25.6 29.5 30.8 145.3 74.8 66.3 6.5 15.9 20.1 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 78 22 100 19.2 28.4 20.7 112.4 66.8 57.6 7.5 15.2 28.4 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 78 22 100 20.6 26.7 19.0 119.2 68.0 58.6 11.4 17.9 24.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 81 19 100 19.7 23.2 20.5 123.6 71.3 61.7 11.8 18.8 21.6 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 79 21 100 24.7 25.7 25.1 121.2 66.7 60.0 13.1 20.8 25.2 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 81 19 100 20.3 28.7 22.7 112.4 66.5 57.3 9.8 17.2 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 80 20 100 14.1 19.4 23.2 123.2 68.5 59.7 5.2 11.6 18.6 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 78 22 100 21.5 30.4 22.9 115.2 67.6 56.0 5.7 17.2 29.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 80 20 100 11.1 17.9 20.8 123.6 71.3 60.0 5.4 8.2 16.3 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 39 61 100 29.4 34.2 31.6 135.4 73.0 63.8 14.3 21.3 26.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 81 19 100 20.6 25.9 18.6 113.8 67.6 57.1 13.4 18.5 25.4 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------