***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** PAD1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama PAD2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anacp%: prognoziran procenat od normale, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctacp: prognoziran percentil: srednjak ansambla u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala avpacp: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-03.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 pad1 pad2 eavg anacp% pctacp avpacp 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 60 40 0 100 8.3 10.7 10.0 60.2 43.6 36.7 5.7 15.9 19.7 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 54 46 0 100 5.3 8.0 7.3 49.9 43.7 36.0 5.7 9.4 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 65 35 0 100 7.2 10.6 8.6 55.3 42.2 36.2 6.2 17.2 24.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 61 39 0 100 8.7 11.0 8.4 46.2 37.2 32.1 10.0 14.8 28.8 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 54 46 0 100 8.0 12.1 9.7 57.9 42.7 37.8 9.7 13.8 21.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 56 44 0 100 10.1 12.7 10.8 56.1 39.1 33.6 11.6 15.1 18.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 55 45 0 100 3.8 5.2 7.8 52.1 43.2 36.9 3.5 7.4 11.8 30 Kikinda 37800G18 54 46 0 100 18.0 22.5 13.6 65.2 42.1 38.6 20.4 24.9 38.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 58 42 0 100 7.5 15.1 12.2 71.9 48.9 42.3 6.0 15.8 20.6 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 53 47 0 100 9.4 15.0 13.8 65.8 43.6 39.6 9.2 16.5 24.6 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 51 49 0 100 8.5 10.7 9.7 56.3 41.6 35.8 8.5 15.3 19.4 30 Krusevac 38200G21 53 47 0 100 8.9 13.7 10.9 64.4 44.9 38.8 10.8 14.3 17.3 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 62 38 0 100 8.4 8.6 8.0 46.0 36.0 31.2 8.3 13.9 21.1 30 Leskovac 26200G08 56 44 0 100 10.7 20.3 13.3 64.8 48.7 40.4 13.6 20.4 29.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 58 42 0 100 4.6 6.1 6.0 37.2 36.9 31.8 4.3 10.1 16.4 30 Negotin 38800G20 55 45 0 100 7.0 9.5 8.4 51.9 39.9 33.4 6.7 12.4 21.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 77 23 100 12.0 9.4 8.7 62.6 48.6 41.3 4.1 9.5 17.6 29 Palic 37000G16 0 76 24 100 22.3 18.4 16.1 72.1 49.1 43.3 12.0 18.8 28.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 54 46 0 100 4.1 4.9 7.4 49.9 42.7 36.2 3.9 8.1 22.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 16.9 14.0 18.2 80.2 49.7 45.9 8.5 14.4 23.0 30 Sjenica 27900G10 61 39 0 100 7.1 12.3 10.5 65.8 47.1 39.4 6.5 14.1 19.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 51 49 0 100 5.8 8.7 8.5 62.3 47.3 40.7 4.9 10.1 16.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 54 46 0 100 6.0 7.7 8.5 53.6 42.1 37.6 6.2 10.3 20.0 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 55 45 0 100 11.3 20.2 12.1 64.7 48.0 40.3 13.1 20.5 26.7 30 Valjevo 28500G11 63 37 0 100 7.0 12.7 8.9 48.1 39.5 33.2 6.3 16.5 20.8 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 59 41 0 100 5.6 5.7 8.9 53.3 37.6 35.5 4.8 10.8 19.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 64 36 0 100 5.6 8.0 9.7 54.5 39.8 34.9 5.3 11.6 19.2 30 Vrsac 39200G15 57 43 0 100 8.2 7.3 8.4 48.0 38.6 33.7 6.2 14.7 16.7 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 76 24 100 28.3 23.7 16.8 74.6 49.7 44.1 14.3 23.9 34.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 63 37 0 100 4.1 7.8 7.3 48.6 42.1 34.9 6.1 9.1 19.9 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ padavine > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ padavine < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.7-0.8 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------