***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 28.05.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 13 87 100 27.1 28.2 27.7 2.5 92.2 85.5 25.0 25.5 26.4 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 17 83 100 26.9 27.8 27.8 2.5 88.0 82.9 24.9 25.3 25.8 30 Becej 27400G00 0 13 87 100 27.0 28.2 27.9 2.5 90.3 84.6 24.8 25.5 26.0 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 17 83 100 19.3 20.6 24.5 1.9 86.0 80.6 17.7 18.1 19.3 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 14 86 100 26.9 28.6 25.6 2.2 90.6 83.9 25.2 25.5 26.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 24 76 100 25.6 26.4 22.4 1.5 83.0 78.5 23.7 24.3 25.6 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 17 83 100 26.5 27.7 27.6 2.4 88.3 82.0 24.6 25.0 25.5 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 21 79 100 15.0 15.4 23.0 1.7 81.7 78.2 13.3 13.8 14.7 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 11 89 100 26.4 28.4 26.3 2.3 91.8 85.0 24.6 25.1 26.0 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 16 84 100 26.1 27.1 24.3 2.0 85.9 81.2 24.5 24.9 25.8 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 14 86 100 26.8 27.7 25.3 2.1 87.2 82.9 24.9 25.3 26.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 18 82 100 25.7 26.3 24.2 1.8 83.6 80.1 24.1 24.4 25.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 15 85 100 27.2 28.1 24.0 1.8 84.0 80.3 25.1 25.4 26.5 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 18 82 100 26.6 27.3 25.7 2.1 86.7 80.2 24.4 25.0 25.6 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 18 82 100 27.3 29.3 26.2 2.0 91.0 82.4 25.7 26.0 27.0 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 16 84 100 27.7 29.2 24.6 1.9 86.4 81.7 25.6 25.9 26.9 30 Nis 06700G01 0 19 81 100 26.5 27.5 27.6 2.6 88.9 82.2 24.3 24.7 25.4 29 Palic 37000G16 0 21 79 100 25.8 26.3 23.4 1.9 83.3 79.1 24.1 24.5 25.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 14 86 100 26.3 27.4 28.0 2.7 89.8 84.8 24.4 24.9 25.4 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 29 71 100 21.2 21.8 20.6 1.4 78.9 74.4 19.5 20.0 20.9 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 13 87 100 26.7 28.6 27.2 2.4 91.2 84.5 24.6 25.3 26.2 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 16 84 100 26.7 28.0 27.6 2.7 89.8 83.1 24.5 25.0 26.1 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 11 89 100 27.0 28.2 28.1 3.0 93.3 87.7 24.6 25.2 25.8 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 17 83 100 26.1 27.4 25.7 2.2 87.0 82.0 24.2 24.8 25.4 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 15 85 100 27.0 28.8 26.0 2.3 92.1 84.6 24.8 25.4 26.1 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 13 87 100 26.6 27.1 23.6 2.0 88.2 83.2 24.6 25.4 26.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 15 85 100 26.5 27.8 26.8 2.4 90.8 84.2 24.5 25.1 25.9 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 19 81 100 27.2 28.7 25.0 1.8 86.4 80.2 25.8 26.5 26.9 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 23 77 100 20.9 21.4 22.4 1.7 81.0 77.0 19.2 19.7 20.7 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 15 85 100 26.5 27.8 27.8 2.5 88.9 83.3 24.9 25.2 25.6 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------