***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 18.06.2018.-24.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 35 65 100 29.0 29.7 28.1 1.9 76.6 67.1 26.3 27.6 28.5 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 39 61 100 28.2 28.8 27.9 1.7 73.9 65.0 25.1 26.5 28.4 30 Becej 27400G00 0 36 64 100 28.6 28.9 28.3 1.9 75.7 66.8 25.3 27.1 28.3 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 35 65 100 22.0 21.7 25.8 1.6 71.5 65.9 18.8 20.7 21.2 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 37 63 100 28.7 29.0 26.2 1.7 71.1 65.9 26.2 27.4 28.7 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 39 61 100 27.6 27.4 23.5 1.5 71.1 64.9 24.6 26.0 27.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 78 22 100 27.1 29.0 27.8 1.6 72.8 64.4 24.7 26.4 28.3 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 16.0 16.7 24.0 1.3 68.1 62.4 13.9 15.6 16.6 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 36 64 100 28.2 28.4 26.5 1.7 72.5 66.1 25.3 27.2 28.1 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 42 58 100 27.9 28.3 24.9 1.5 70.0 63.8 25.1 26.8 27.9 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 35 65 100 28.4 28.7 25.7 1.6 70.7 65.4 25.6 27.1 28.3 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.7 25.3 1.5 71.2 64.2 25.0 25.8 27.2 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 39 61 100 28.5 28.6 24.5 1.6 70.1 64.5 26.1 27.0 28.4 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 79 21 100 27.8 28.1 25.6 1.3 66.8 62.1 24.1 27.3 28.1 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 26 74 100 29.7 30.3 26.9 1.9 77.6 68.8 26.6 28.0 28.8 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 33 67 100 29.4 29.4 25.3 1.7 71.5 65.8 26.8 27.8 29.0 30 Nis 06700G01 0 78 22 100 26.7 28.2 27.6 1.6 71.6 63.2 24.7 26.1 27.9 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.4 27.5 24.1 1.3 68.8 61.9 24.3 26.0 27.4 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 36 64 100 27.8 28.5 28.1 1.9 76.1 66.5 24.2 26.2 28.0 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 81 19 100 22.4 22.7 21.4 1.1 62.5 59.5 20.2 21.9 22.7 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 35 65 100 28.5 28.9 27.4 1.7 72.8 65.8 25.4 26.9 28.7 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.9 27.5 1.7 74.0 64.0 24.5 26.2 28.4 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 30 70 100 28.5 29.0 28.2 2.1 77.9 68.1 24.4 27.2 27.7 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 40 60 100 27.9 27.5 25.9 1.5 70.7 63.8 24.3 26.8 27.3 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 36 64 100 28.8 29.1 26.3 1.8 74.5 66.5 25.7 27.5 28.6 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 39 61 100 28.3 29.2 25.0 2.0 77.5 68.4 24.8 26.7 28.1 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 38 62 100 28.0 28.5 27.1 1.8 75.0 66.1 24.9 26.5 27.6 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 31 69 100 29.7 30.3 26.0 1.7 73.3 66.7 26.7 27.9 29.5 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 22.1 22.7 23.0 1.1 63.6 60.1 19.1 21.8 22.8 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 38 62 100 28.2 28.9 28.0 1.8 74.8 65.9 24.7 26.5 28.3 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------