***************** ECMWF monthly forecast ********************* ************************************************************** mxt1: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena tezinjenjem osmotrenih klimatskih percentila modifikovanim prognoziranim verovatnocama mxt2: nova prognozirana vrednost dobijena ocitavanjem vrednosti prognoziranog percentila iz niza osmotrene klimatologije eavg: srednja vrednost svih ansambala anmx2t: prognozirana anomalija, gde je normala srednja vrednost hindcast klimatologije pctmxt: prognoziran percentil u odnosu na hindcast klimatologiju svih ansambala apcmxt: prognoziran percentil : percentili pojedinacnih ansambala su sabrani, a potom podeljeni ukupnim brojem ansambala 33%=donji tercil 50%=medijana 66%=gornji tercil (osmotrena klimatologija 1981-2010) p<33 33<=p<=66 p>66 (modifikovane prognozirane verovatnoce) ************************************************************** fct start 24.05.2018. 4 nedelje od ponedeljka valid: 04.06.2018.-10.06.2018. ************************************************************** ghid t<33 33<=t<=66 t>66 mxt1 mxt2 eavg anmx2t pctmxt avpmxt 33% 50% 66% br.god 18000G04 0 33 67 100 27.3 27.9 26.7 2.0 77.2 70.0 23.8 25.9 27.0 25 Banatski Karlovac 17000G06 0 29 71 100 27.4 28.0 26.7 1.9 75.6 68.0 24.2 26.0 27.6 30 Becej 27400G00 0 30 70 100 27.6 27.6 26.7 1.8 73.3 68.0 24.1 26.3 27.2 30 Beograd 28900G14 0 39 61 100 20.1 20.8 23.4 1.5 71.4 66.2 16.5 18.7 20.5 29 Crni Vrh 38400G13 0 34 66 100 27.8 28.1 24.5 1.7 72.2 67.3 25.0 26.6 27.9 30 Cuprija 39700G22 0 40 60 100 26.1 26.2 21.5 1.3 69.7 65.3 23.6 24.7 26.0 30 Dimitrovgrad 17400G03 0 32 68 100 26.8 27.4 26.6 1.8 74.5 67.7 23.9 25.2 26.6 30 Kikinda 37800G18 0 81 19 100 14.5 15.2 21.7 1.1 63.2 61.7 12.7 14.1 15.3 30 Kopaonik 27800G12 0 35 65 100 27.2 27.2 25.3 1.8 72.4 67.7 24.2 26.4 26.9 30 Kragujevac 37600G18 0 80 20 100 26.4 27.3 23.1 1.4 66.8 64.2 24.3 26.1 27.2 30 Kraljevo 38300G19 0 40 60 100 27.4 27.9 24.4 1.6 70.6 66.2 25.0 26.4 27.5 30 Krusevac 38200G21 0 81 19 100 25.3 26.4 23.0 1.3 66.6 63.8 23.4 24.9 26.4 30 Kursumlija 38900G23 0 41 59 100 27.5 27.8 23.2 1.4 66.6 64.8 24.8 26.3 27.8 30 Leskovac 26200G08 0 40 60 100 27.1 27.5 24.5 1.3 67.4 63.4 24.5 25.7 27.5 30 Loznica 29500G14 0 32 68 100 28.1 28.5 25.4 1.6 76.4 67.7 24.6 26.9 27.7 30 Negotin 38800G20 0 41 59 100 27.9 28.2 23.7 1.5 70.1 66.0 25.7 27.2 27.8 30 Nis 06700G01 0 33 67 100 26.7 26.9 26.5 1.9 74.8 68.1 23.4 25.1 26.7 29 Palic 37000G16 0 80 20 100 26.1 26.5 22.1 1.1 63.6 61.8 23.6 25.8 26.5 30 Pozega 16800G06 0 28 72 100 26.9 27.4 26.8 2.0 76.7 69.1 23.8 25.5 26.7 30 Rimski Sancevi 36900G16 0 82 18 100 20.7 21.0 19.4 0.8 60.4 58.2 19.3 20.3 21.4 30 Sjenica 27900G10 0 36 64 100 27.5 27.6 26.2 1.8 73.0 67.5 24.0 26.4 27.1 30 Smederevska Palanka 16000G05 0 31 69 100 27.5 27.7 26.4 1.9 74.6 68.0 24.1 25.6 26.8 30 Sombor 26600G07 0 29 71 100 27.2 27.7 26.8 2.2 78.2 70.6 24.5 25.9 27.2 30 Sremska Mitrovica 26900G09 0 36 64 100 26.7 26.7 24.6 1.4 68.2 64.6 24.1 25.5 26.5 30 Valjevo 28500G11 0 33 67 100 27.5 27.9 25.1 1.9 74.5 68.7 24.1 26.3 27.0 30 Veliko Gradiste 48900G24 0 38 62 100 26.9 27.2 22.4 1.6 71.2 66.6 24.2 25.7 27.0 30 Vranje 18300G04 0 32 68 100 27.1 27.6 25.9 1.9 75.2 69.1 23.9 25.9 27.1 30 Vrsac 39200G15 0 37 63 100 27.9 28.4 24.1 1.5 72.8 66.1 24.7 26.9 28.2 30 Zajecar 36700G16 0 80 20 100 20.8 21.0 21.1 1.0 62.2 60.5 19.0 20.4 21.6 30 Zlatibor 17300G02 0 29 71 100 27.3 27.9 26.7 1.8 75.5 68.0 23.9 25.8 27.2 30 Zrenjanin -------------------------------- | ECMWF ROC skor za Srbiju | -------------------------------- ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m > gornjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.5-0.6 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------ temperatura na 2m < donjeg tercila ------------------------------ dani 5-11 0.8-0.9 12-18 0.6-0.7 19-25 0.6-0.7 26-32 0.5-0.6 ------------------------------